摘要
文章运用动态递归可计算一般均衡模型考察了碳税对中国旅游及其关联产业的经济影响,尝试在碳税情形下,从四个主要的经济变量增加值、产出、就业、生产价格来探讨旅游业的变化情况。根据研究设计,文章模拟了2017~2030年中国旅游经济的变化。研究显示:碳税政策将会显著增加中国旅游业的运营成本,具体而言,碳税政策将会降低旅游业的规模、减少旅游就业人数,减少旅游业对国民经济的贡献,降低旅游需求。碳税政策对不同旅游经济变量和旅游部门的影响有着显著区别,其中对旅游就业的影响最大,对生产价格的影响最小。税率越高对中国旅游业影响越大,但这种影响会随着时间而逐渐削弱。研究结果对于碳税情形下的中国旅游可持续发展管理具有一定的启示意义,文章的理论和实践意义对于正在或者准备实行碳税政策的旅游地而言,同样具有较高的参考价值。
This study investigated the economic impacts of the carbon tax on the fast-growing Chinese tourism industry by using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model.This study explores the changes in the overall and classified non-energy sectional economic variables at different times under different tax scenarios.It examines the advancement of tourism economic change with respect to the value added,output,employment,and production pricing under different carbon tax scenarios.To do this,we performed a 14-term simulation for the years 2017 to 2030.Our findings indicate that 1)Levying a carbon tax would create significant economic costs for China's tourism industry.These impacts include reducing the contribution of tourism to the national economy,decreasing the economic scale of tourism,impairing tourism employment,and reducing the demand for tourism products.2)The carbon tax impacts vary significantly across different economic variables.Tourism employment is impacted the most;tourism production price is impacted the least.3)In general,higher carbon tax pricing impacts the tourism economy more,with impacts then decreasing from 2017 to 2030.Our results support decision-making about sustainable tourism development in China under different carbon tax scenarios.Furthermore,our theoretical and practical proposals highlight more effective practices for different tourist destinations,where the carbon tax policies have been implemented or where implementation is planned.
作者
张燕
章杰宽
ZHANG Yan;ZHANG Jiekuan(School of Tourism Management, Guilin Tourism University, Guilin541006, Guangxi,China;Asean Tourism Research Centre of China Tourism Academy,Guilin Tourism University,Guilin541006,Guangxi,China)
出处
《旅游研究》
2021年第4期55-69,共15页
Tourism Research
基金
国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目“低碳旅游地的系统反馈、政策生成和动态评价研究”(71764027)。
关键词
经济影响
旅游经济
碳税
可计算一般均衡模型
低碳旅游
economic impacts
tourism economy
carbon tax
computable general equilibrium modeling
low-carbon tourism
