摘要
借鉴公共政策的多源流理论分析台湾当局南海政策,研究发现台湾当局南海政策动态演进具有连续性、迭次性和稳定性。具体而言,问题源流是客观的南海问题本身,包括南海争端的变动、南海战略的对抗、南海格局的浮现和引发争议的焦点事件;政治源流包括岛内、两岸和国际三个层面的政治情势,受此影响,台湾当局置于扭曲的政治定位、切割的政治逻辑、压缩的政治空间和边缘的政治角色中;政策源流是南海问题的政策建议或方案,包括台湾当局建基于身份定位的政策分歧、倾向于利益的政策共识、植根于价值的政策基调和聚合于议题的政策偏好。当三大源流汇聚时,政策之窗逐渐开启,并推动台湾当局南海政策变迁。70多年来,台湾当局南海政策渐次开启了目标设定、手段选择、身份转向和“法律”叙事四个政策之窗,“去中国化”的程度逐渐加深。
Based on the Multiple Streams Model of public policy,this paper analyzes the Taiwan authorities’policy on the South China Sea,and finds that the dynamic evolution of the Taiwan authorities’policy on the South China Sea has continuity,repetition and stability.Specifically,the origin of the problem is the objective South China Sea issue itself,including the change of the South China Sea dispute,the strategic confrontation in the South China Sea,the emergence of the South China Sea pattern and the focus of the dispute.The political origins include the political situation on the island,on both sides of the Taiwan Straits and internationally.Affected by this,the Taiwan authorities are placed in a distorted political position,cut political logic,compressed political space and marginal political role.The origin of the policy is the policy suggestions or programs on the South China Sea issue,including the policy differences based on the identity of the Taiwan authorities,the policy consensus inclined to interests,the policy tone rooted in the value and the policy preference converged on the topic.When the three sources converged,the policy window gradually opened,and promoted the change of Taiwan authorities’South China Sea policy.Over the past 70 years,Taiwan authorities’South China Sea policy has gradually opened four policy windows:goal setting,means selection,identity change and“legal”narration,and the degree of“Desinicization”has gradually deepened.
作者
叶正国
YE Zhengguo(China Institute of Boundary and Oceanography,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei,China)
出处
《闽台关系研究》
2021年第2期36-53,共18页
Research on Fujian-Taiwan Relationship
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目(17CZZ037)。
关键词
南海政策
多源流框架
政策之窗
两岸关系
“去中国化”
South China Sea Policy
Multiple Streams Model
policy window
cross-strait relationship
“Desinification”
