摘要
目的:评估中国足协U23政策对适龄球员竞技表现及其比赛结果的影响。方法:采用符号分析、逐步判别模型、有序逻辑回归模型等方法,对2017—2018赛季均出场的34名U23球员的上场参数与竞技表现进行研究。结果:与2017赛季相比,U23球员在2018赛季的进攻类与防守类变量均未发生显著性变化(P>0.05);U23球员出场的位置、射正、进球以及解围等指标与比赛结果为弱正相关关系;其中后三者对比赛结果呈正向影响;U23球员上场时间与上场时间节点影响比赛胜负概率,但程度较弱且无统计学意义;射正、进球以及解围三项运动表现指标对比赛胜负概率影响显著。结论:U23政策的变更调整对年轻球员的配额保护执行效果与预期目标背道而驰,没有显著提升其竞技表现;教练员应对U23时采用的“少上场、晚上场”策略不会对比赛胜负产生显著影响,但U23球员关键竞技指标可以在一定程度上影响比赛胜负的概率。
Purposes:To evaluate the effect of U23 policy of CFA on players and the relationship between U23 players and match results.Methods:Symbol analysis,discriminant model and ordered logistic regression model were used to study the competitive performance of 34 U23 players in 2017 and 2018 seasons,and obtain various parameters about the technical and tactical indicators and results of the competition.Results:There were no significant change in attacking variables and defending variables of U23 players in 2018 compared with 2017(P>0.05).U23 players'position,shooting,goal and clearance were weakly and positively related to the results of the game;the latter three have a positive impact on the results of the game.U23 players'playing time and playing time nodes affect the winning and losing probability of the game,but the degree was weak.The shooting on target,goal in offensive variables and clearance in defensive variables had significant effect on the winning and losing probability of the game.Conclusions:The implementation effect of U23 policy change and adjustment on quota protection of young players in 2018 season is contrary to the expected goal,and does not significantly improve their competitive performance.Coaches'strategies of play less and play later will not have a significant impact on the outcome for the game,but the key competitive indicators of U23 players can affect the probability of the game to some extent.
作者
部义峰
黄栋
赵刚
BU Yifeng;HUANG Dong;ZHAO Gang(Institute of PE,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou 221116,China;School of PE,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,China)
出处
《天津体育学院学报》
CAS
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期472-477,共6页
Journal of Tianjin University of Sport
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(项目编号:17BTY101)
江苏高校“青蓝工程”资助项目。
