摘要
在运用灵活样本熵测度黄河上游干支流12个水文站1960-2015年径流复杂性的基础上,量化多时间尺度下气候变化和人类活动对径流影响的贡献率,结果显示,近60 a来,黄河上游径流总体呈下降趋势,仅在部分时段和站点呈上升趋势.年径流量一致在1980年代中期到90年代初、2010年前后发生突变. 1986年后,气候变化和人类活动对黄河上游径流的影响时空差异显著,汛期、丰水期、春夏秋季径流在所有站点均以气候变化影响为主.年、非汛期、枯水期在干流贵德站至兰州站、支流湟水民和站以人类活动影响为主.复杂性测度适用于检测径流序列宏观突变和微观变化,据此量化气候变化和人类活动对径流影响的贡献率具有很好的可靠性,但各影响因子的贡献率和机制需深入分析.
Based on the flexible sample entropy to measure the runoff complexity of 12 hydrological stations in the upper reaches of the Yellow River from 1960 to 2015,the contribution rates of the impacts of climate changes and human activities on runoff at multiple time scales were quantified.The results showed that,in the past 60 years,the runoff of the upper reaches of the Yellow River showed a downward trend as a whole,and only an upward trend in certain periods and stations.The annual runoff consistently underwent abrupt changes at the mid-1980 s to the early 1990 s,and around 2010.After 1986,the impacts of climate changes and human activities on the runoff showed significantly temporal and spatial differences.The runoff during the flood season,high flow,spring,summer and autumn was mainly affected by climate changes at all sites.The runoff of annual,non-flood season and low flow were mainly influenced by human activities in main stream from Guide to Lanzhou Stations and Minhe Station of Huangshui in tributaries.The complexity measure is suitable for detecting macro-abrupt changes and micro-changes in the runoff sequence,and its results are very reliable in quantifying the contribution rates of climate change and human activity impacts on runoff,but the contribution rates of influential factors and mechanism need further and deeper analysis.
作者
苏贤保
李勋贵
张建香
孟楠
王乃昂
SU Xian-bao;LI Xun-gui;ZHANG Jian-xiang;MENG Nan;WANG Nai-ang(College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Research Center for Glacier Region and Desert,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China)
出处
《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第3期285-293,共9页
Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41530745,51679115,51109103)。
关键词
气候变化
人类活动
径流复杂性
黄河
climate changes
human activity
runoff complexity
Yellow River
