摘要
利用2016—2019年广东省国控站实况监测数据对华南区域大气成分数值模式系统(GRACEs)预报性能进行了综合评估。除空气质量指数AQI外,重点对PM_(2.5)、O_(3)及NO2进行了分析评估。(1)模式预报性能存在年际差异,对各要素的预报值总体偏低。(2)模式预报能较好地反映空气质量的空间分布,PM_(2.5)中心在珠三角西北部,而O_(3)-8 h高值区在珠三角核心区和粤东沿海,但模式对O_(3)-8 h高值区存在显著预报低估现象。(3)模式可较好地模拟出PM_(2.5)月变化的单峰型特征和O_(3)-8 h月变化双峰型特征,但模式对AQI的秋冬季主峰值和春季次峰值的预报存在低估,分别与模式对O_(3)-8 h、PM_(2.5)的低估有关。(4)模式能较好体现O_(3)的午后峰值和NO2双峰值的日变化规律;模式对O_(3)前体物NO2的预报偏差,有可能是导致随后几小时对O_(3)浓度预报偏差的重要原因。(5)日平均浓度预报效果检验显示模式可较好预测AQI和3种污染物的变化趋势,但对夏秋季高O_(3)-8 h浓度预报显著偏低;模式对轻度污染及以上等级预报能力偏低,亟需提升模式对污染天气的预报能力。
Based on the observed data from national environment stations in Guangdong Province during 2016—2019,comprehensive evaluation is conducted on the forecasting performance of the Guangzhou Regional Atmospheric Composition and Environment Forecasting System(GRACEs).Apart from Air Quality Index(AQI),PM_(2.5),O_(3)and NO2 forecasting is also evaluated.The results are as follows:(1)There were inter-annual differences in the forecasting performance of GRACEs and the forecasted value of each parameter was universally low.(2)The model was skillful in forecasting the spatial distribution of air quality.The high concentration center of PM_(2.5)was in the northwest of the Pearl River Delta.The region of high O_(3)-8 h was located in the core area of the Pearl River Delta and the eastern coast of Guangdong,though there was a significant underestimation in the high concentration region of O_(3)-8 h.(3)In terms of monthly variation,GRACEs exhibited acceptable performance for the single-peak variation of PM_(2.5)and the bimodal variation of O_(3)-8 h,but the main peak of AQI in autumn and the second peak in spring were underestimated,which were related to the underestimation of O_(3)-8 h and PM_(2.5),respectively.(4)In terms of diurnal variation,GRACEs showed good capability in capturing the peak of O_(3)in the afternoon and the double peak of NO2.The forecast deviation of NO2,a precursor of O_(3),probably led to the forecast deviation of O_(3)concentration in the following hours.(5)The trend of the daily average concentration of AQI and 3 pollutants predicted by GRACEs was in accordance with that observed,but O_(3)-8 h was significantly underestimated in summer and autumn.The capacity of GRACEs to forecast light pollution and above was low,so it is urgent to develop the model.
作者
李婷苑
吴乃庚
邓雪娇
邓涛
陈靖扬
沈劲
邓思欣
梁华玲
LI Ting-yuan;WU Nai-geng;DENG Xue-jiao;DENG Tao;CHEN Jing-yang;SHEN Jin;DENG Si-xin;LIANG Hua-ling(Guangdong Ecological Meteorological Center/Environmental Meteorology Forecast Center of Pearl River Delta,Guangzhou 510640,China;Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,China Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 510640,China;Guangdong Environmental Monitoring Center/State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Regional Air Quality Monitoring,Guangzhou 510308,China;Foshan Environmental Monitoring Center,Foshan,Guangdong 528000,China;Foshan Meteorological Bureau,Foshan,Guangdong 528000,China)
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期207-217,共11页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0213902、2019YFC0214605)
国家自然科学基金项目(41801326)
广东省重点研发计划项目(2020B1111360003)
广东省气象局科技创新团队项目(GRMCTD202003)
国家环境保护区域空气质量监测重点实验室开放基金(SRAQM01202001)共同资助。
