摘要
基于耦合协调度模型、探索性数据分析和LISA时空跃迁分析,探究2006—2017年江苏省人口城镇化与能源消费CO_(2)排放耦合协调度的时空格局,并构建空间滞后面板Tobit模型,分析其影响因素。结果表明:(1)2006—2017年,江苏省人口城镇化与能源消费CO_(2)排放耦合协调度呈上升趋势,耦合协调度类型由良好耦合协调转化为优质耦合协调。耦合协调度存在明显的区域差异,总体呈东部>西部>中部、南部>北部的趋势,空间格局较为稳定。耦合协调度绝对差异总体上呈减小趋势,相对差异与绝对差异变化趋势基本一致,空间集聚性呈波动变化趋势。(2)空间滞后面板Tobit模型结果表明:年末总人口与空间因素对耦合协调度具有显著的正向作用,人均GDP和碳排放强度对耦合协调度具有显著的负向作用,第二产业比例对耦合协调度具有负向作用,但不明显。
China is in the stage of rapid urbanization development,the existing research pays more attention to the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions, and ignores the coupling relationship between carbon emissions and urbanization.From the perspective of coupling coordination,this article explores the spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factor of coupling coordination degree between population urbanization and CO_(2) emission of energy consumption, which is conducive to the coordinated development of population urbanization and carbon emission. Based on the model of coupling coordination degree,exploratory spatial data analysis and spatiotemporal transition analysis of LISA,it analyzes spatial-temporal pattern of coupling coordination degree between population urbanization and CO_(2) emissions of energy consumption in Jiangsu Province from 2006 to 2017, and constructs spatial lag panel Tobit model to analyze its influencing factors. The results are shown as follows: 1) The coupling coordination degree between population urbanization and CO_(2) emissions of energy consumption showed an increasing trend,and the type of coupling coordination degree was transformed from good-quality coupling coordination degree to the better-quality in Jiangsu Province from2006 to 2017. There were obvious regional differences in the coupling coordination degree,it showed the decreasing trend in sequence: the east of Jiangsu,the west of Jiangsu,the central Jiangsu,it was higher in the south of Jiangsu than the north,and the spatial pattern was relatively stable. The absolute difference of coupling coordination degree overall showed a decreasing trend, the change trend of the relative difference was basically consistent with absolute difference, and the spatial agglomeration showed a fluctuating change trend. 2) According to the results of spatial lag panel Tobit,it showed that population at year-end and spatial factor played a significantly positive role in improving the coupling coordination degree. GDP per capita and carbon inten
作者
李建豹
黄贤金
揣小伟
孙树臣
LI Jianbao;HUANG Xianjin;CHUAI Xiaowei;SUN Shuchen(School of Public Administration,Nanjing University of Finance&Economics,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China;Center for Governmental Studies,Nanjing University of Finance&Economics,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China;School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China;Key Laboratory of the Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection,Ministry of Land and Resources,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China;School of Environment and Planning,Liaocheng University,Liaocheng 252059,Shandong,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第5期57-64,共8页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41901245)
江苏省高等学校自然科学研究面上项目(19KJB170014)
国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA061)。
关键词
人口城镇化
能源消费
碳排放
耦合协调度
夜间灯光数据
新型城镇化
绿色低碳发展
population urbanization
energy consumption
carbon emissions
coupling coordination degree
night light data
new urbanization
green and low-carbon development
