摘要
基于EQCHANGE汇率失衡数据库,本文采用双向固定效应面板模型分析1995-2015年间全球77个国家净资本流动对汇率失衡程度的影响。研究发现:净资本流入影响汇率失衡程度,即在汇率低估时,净资本流入有利于汇率回归其均衡水平,在汇率高估时,净资本流入反而会增加汇率失衡;子项目资本净流动对汇率水平的影响不尽相同;汇率制度弹性越大,越有利于资本流动调节汇率水平;资本流入管制的调节效果比流出管制更佳。
Based on the exchange rate imbalance data of EQCHANGE, this paper uses a two-way fixed-effect panel model to analyze the impact of net capital flow in 77 countries in the world on the degree of exchange rate imbalance during 1995-2015. It’s found that, the net capital inflow impacts the degree of exchange rate imbalance, which means that the net capital inflow helps the exchange rate to return to its equilibrium level when the exchange rate is undervalued, and to increase exchange rate imbalance when the exchange rate is overvalued;the impacts of the net capital flow of sub-items on exchange rate vary;the more flexible the exchange rate system, the more conducive it is for capital flow to adjust the exchange rate level;the adjustment effect of capital inflow control is better than that of outflow control.
作者
陈中飞
范春嫦
李珂欣
李佳阳
CHEN Zhong-fei;FAN Chun-chang;LI Ke-xin;LI Jia-yang
出处
《金融论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第6期49-59,共11页
Finance Forum
关键词
汇率失衡
资本流动
资本管制
汇率制度
exchange rate imbalance
capital flow
capital control
exchange rate system
