摘要
近来,南亚地缘政治博弈呈现新态势和新特点。美国拜登政府整体上延续了特朗普政府时期出台的印太战略,为压制中国发展势头而刻意拉拢和抬高印度。在拜登政府任内,美印持续战略走近仍将是主流,这将进一步加剧南亚地区力量对比失衡的局面,地区安全脆弱性短期内难以扭转;同时,拜登政府持续酝酿和调整对阿富汗政策,4月正式宣布了从阿富汗撤军的最后期限,这立即引发阿富汗形势的新一轮变动,包括和平进程在内的阿富汗问题未来走向面临重大变数;印度人民党(印人党)在印度的执政地位依然巩固。印人党带有强烈的印度教民族主义色彩,主张重建和恢复"印度教统治的印度",持续巩固和加强印度教民族主义在印度社会的主流意识形态地位。印人党持续做大的国内政治现实,以及美国等西方国家的刻意拉拢,导致印度自信心空前,在处理包括中国在内的邻国关系方面更加强硬和不妥协,印度与周边国家关系持续吃紧;此外,巴基斯坦近年来安全形势持续好转,安全事件发生的频率和导致的人员伤亡人数持续下降,但若干安全隐忧仍在。鉴于南亚地缘政治博弈呈现以上新态势和新特点,未来整个地区的安全与稳定有赖中国与南亚域内域外的国家加强合作,共同抵制某些国家和势力的破坏和威胁。
Recently,the South Asian geopolitical game has shown new trends and new characteristics.Specifically,the Biden administration has continued the Indo-Pacific strategy,deliberately wooing and raising India in order to suppress the momentum of China’s development.The strategic cooperation between the United States and India will continue to be the mainstream,which will further catalyze the imbalance of power balance in South Asia,and regional security vulnerabilities will not be reversed in the short term.At the same time,the Biden administration continues to adjust its Afghanistan policy,the deadline for withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan was officially announced in April,which immediately triggered a new round of changes in the situation in Afghanistan.The Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP)consolidates its ruling position.The BJP has a strong color of Hindu nationalism and advocates the reconstruction and restoration of"Hindu-ruled India",and continues to consolidate and strengthen the mainstream ideological status of Hindu nationalism in Indian society.This domestic political reality,as well as the deliberate wooing by the United States and other Western countries has led to unprecedented self-confidence of the Indian authority.Indian authority has become more rigid and uncompromising in handling relations with neighboring countries,including China.In view of the above new trends and new characteristics of the South Asian geopolitical game,the security and stability of the entire region in the future depends on China and like-minded countries in and outside South Asia to strengthen cooperation and jointly resist the destruction and threats of certain countries and forces.
出处
《南亚东南亚研究》
2021年第3期17-30,152,153,共16页
South and Southeast Asian Studies
基金
云南省社会科学院中国(昆明)南亚东南亚研究院项目“南亚宗教民族主义发展态势及其影响研究”(项目编号:YJ202123)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
南亚
地缘博弈
印太战略
印度
巴基斯坦
阿富汗
South Asia
Geopolitical Game
Indo-Pacific Strategy
India
Pakistan
Afghanistan
