摘要
本文通过对洛阳市栾川县2012到2019年农村金融机构的贷款余额和旅游收入数据进行实证分析,构建了金融扶持对旅游业影响的误差修正(VEC)模型,以协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型,研究得出金融扶持与旅游业发展之间存在长期有效的稳定的均衡关系,但是短期内,金融扶持的推动作用具有滞后性。因此,运用ADF平稳性检验、EG两步法协整检验最终建立误差修正模型来分析金融扶持力度与栾川县的乡村旅游发展水平之间的关系,并且运用了格兰杰因果检验的方法来判断两变量间是否真正存在因果关系。
Based on the empirical analysis of the loan balance and tourism income data of rural fi nancial institutions in Luanchuan County of Luoyang City from 2012 to 2019,this paper constructs the error correction(VEC)model of the impact of fi nancial support on tourism industry,and uses co-integration test,Granger causality test and error correction model to study the long-term effective and stable equilibrium relationship between financial support and tourism development,but in the short term,the role of fi nancial support is lagging behind.Therefore,we use ADF stationary test and EG two-step co-integration test to establish error correction model to analyze the relationship between fi nancial support and rural tourism development level of Luanchuan County,and use Granger causality test to judge whether there is a real causal relationship between the two variables.
作者
朱迪
邢韦
刘爱国
董雅楠
苟玲玲
ZHU Di;XING Wei;LIU Aiguo;DONG Yanan;GOU Lingling(Henan University)
出处
《商展经济》
2021年第12期28-30,共3页
Trade Fair Economy
基金
2020年度河南大学校级大创项目“乡村振兴战略背景下河南省农村金融与乡村旅游共同发展的研究”(项目编号:2020100803)。
关键词
金融扶持
旅游发展
误差修正模型
滞后性
协整检验
格兰杰因果检验
fi nancial support
tourism development
error correction model
hysteresis
co-integration test
Granger causality test
