摘要
选取中国东部长江三角洲城市群区域作为研究对象,采用中国区域最新的土地覆盖资料ChinaLC,利用中尺度气象模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)对国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)中CESM(Community Earth System Model)气候模式提供的RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5)情景预估结果进行动力降尺度,以此模拟研究了未来增温1.5℃/2.0℃时的区域气候变化情况。结果表明:CESM数据作为侧边界资料驱动WRF模式得到的降尺度模拟结果,与历史时期(1996—2005年)的气温观测数据相比,在空间分布上有较高的吻合度,该降尺度方案可以为未来区域气温变化的预估提供较为可靠的数据;长三角地区在到达全球增温1.5℃(2025—2034年)/2.0℃(2042—2051年)时,区域平均气温与历史同期相比分别升高了0.8℃和1.47℃;空间分布上,增温最明显的区域主要集中在城市及其周边镶嵌体区域;随着全球增暖,区域平均高温热浪频次在增温1.5℃/2.0℃时期较历史同期分别增加了47%和100%,热浪强度分别增加了71%和129%;进一步通过对人体舒适度分析发现,与2.0℃升温阈值相比,控制增暖在1.5℃以内,极不舒适覆盖区域影响的人口数预计可减少5602.9万人。
The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in eastern China was selected as the research object,and the latest land cover data of China—ChinaLC and the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF)were used to dynamically downscale the RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5)scenario prediction results provided by the CESM(Community Earth System Model)climate model in the fifth phase of CMIP5,in order to study the regional climate change of the future warming of 1.5℃/2.0℃.Results show that the results of downscaling simulation using CESM data as the lateral boundary data driven WRF model are compared with the temperature observation data in the historical period(1996-2005),and the spatial distribution is in high agreement.This downscaling scheme can provide more reliable data for the prediction of regional temperature change in the future.The regional mean air temperature will be increased by 0.8℃and 1.47℃respectively if the global temperature would increase 1.5℃/2.0℃in the Yangtze River Delta region compared with the historical period.In the spatial distribution,the most obvious change is the area of mosaic and cities.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the most obvious warming area is mainly concentrated in the city and its surrounding mosaic area.In addition,with the development of global warming,the frequency of high-temperature heatwaves will increase 47%times and 100%times than that of historical period,and the intensity of high-temperature heatwaves will increase 71%and 129%times,respectively during the period of increasing temperature 1.5℃/2.0℃.Compared with the 2.0℃temperature rise threshold,the number of people affected by the most uncomfortable areas will be reduced by 56.029 million if the controlled warming is within 1.5℃.
作者
王莹
马红云
李海俊
WANG Ying;MA Hongyun;LI Haijun(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Institute of Climate and Application Research of School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Jiangxi Meteorological Bureau,Nanchang 330000,China)
出处
《气象科学》
北大核心
2021年第3期285-294,共10页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603804)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(4187050223)。
关键词
长三角城市群
CMIP5
高温日数
人体舒适度指数
Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration
CMIP5
high-temperature days
comfort index of human body
