摘要
在国内国际双循环背景下厘清现阶段粮食生产的时空格局及驱动因素的空间分异规律,以更好地发挥粮食主产区对保障中国粮食安全的战略作用。基于粮食主产区2001—2017年粮食生产面板数据,利用探索性空间数据分析检验粮食主产区粮食生产格局的空间模式,采用地理加权回归模型分析粮食主产区粮食产量驱动因素的空间异质性。结果显示:主产区粮食产量处于高-高和低-低集聚的省份较多,处于高-低和低-高集聚的省份较少,且空间相关性随着时间波动下降;2001年及2017年种粮人数对粮食产量的驱动作用呈现出明显的空间异质性,其他因素对各地区粮食产量的驱动作用基本一致。基于上述研究结论,必须在充分考虑粮食主产区地域发展差异的基础上,从提升粮食单产、坚守耕地红线、规范化肥使用、推进农业科技化、防范农业灾害等方面着力改善,以期为中国粮食安全提供科学保障。
Under the background of domestic and international double circulation,clarifies the temporal and spatial pattern of grain production and the spatial differentiation law of driving factors,so as to give full play to the strategic role of major grain producing areas in ensuring China's food security.Based on the panel data of grain production in major grain producing areas from 2001 to 2017,the spatial pattern of grain production pattern in major grain producing areas was examined by exploratory spatial data analysis,and the spatial heterogeneity of the driving factors of grain production in major grain producing areas was analyzed by geographic weighted regression model.The results show that there are more provinces with high-high and low-low concentration of grain output in the main producing areas,but fewer provinces with high-low and low-high concentration,and the spatial correlation decreases with time fluctuations.In 2001 and 2017,the driving effect of the number of grain growers on grain yield showed obvious spatial heterogeneity,and the driving effects of other factors on grain yield in different regions were basically the same.Based on the above research conclusions,we must give full consideration to the regional development differences in major grain producing areas,and make efforts to improve the grain yield per unit area,stick to the red line of cultivated land,standardize the use of chemical fertilizers,promote agricultural science and technology,and prevent agricultural disasters,so as to provide scientific guarantee for China's food security.
作者
詹晶
刘滨
ZHAN Jing;LIU Bin(School of Economics,Management and Law,University of South China,Hengyang Hunan 421001,China)
出处
《科技和产业》
2021年第6期124-131,共8页
Science Technology and Industry
基金
国家社科基金一般项目(20BJY121)
湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会课题(XSP20YBZ193)
南华大学研究生科研创新项目课题(203YXC018)。
关键词
粮食主产区
粮食生产
时空格局
驱动因素
major grain producing areas
grain production
temporal and spatial pattern
driving factors
