摘要
准确认识我国经济增长的持续性,对实现我国经济的持续增长,争取在2035年人均收入达到中等发达国家水平,具有重要的现实意义。理论分析与国际比较表明,资本产出比(K/Y)稳定而不是全要素生产率(TFP)增长才是经济增长可持续的主要特征。根据这个标准,中国经济在2008年之前一直处于可持续增长的稳态均衡附近,但此后出现了偏离稳态均衡的趋势。偏离稳态的原因既有国际金融危机带来的短期因素,也有发展阶段转变的长期因素。为了使经济尽快重新收敛到较高增长率的新稳态,一方面应该通过扩大内需提高产能利用率进而提高资本的生产率;另一方面应该通过供给侧结构性改革激发产业内的结构转换效应,并通过教育体制改革不断提升人力资本,加快科技进步。
A correct understanding of the sustainability of China's economic growth is of great practical significance for China's sustained economic growth and for the per capita income to reach the level of moderately developed countries in 2035.Theoretical analysis and international comparison show that the stability of capital output ratio(K/Y)rather than TFP growth is the main feature of economic growth sustainability.According to this standard,China's economy has been near the steady-state equilibrium of sustainable growth until 2008,but it has deviated from the steady-state equilibrium since then.The reasons for the deviation from steady state are not only short-term factors brought by international financial crisis,but also long-term factors of development stage change.In order to make the economy converge to a new steady state with high growth rate as soon as possible,on the one hand,we should increase the capacity utilization by expanding domestic demand to improve the productivity of capital;on the other hand,we should stimulate the structural transformation effect in the industry through supply side structural reform,and human capital accumulation by education system reform,and accelerate the progress of science and technology.
作者
唐雪梅
谭雨欣
Tang Xuemei;Tan Yuxin(Tongji Zhejiang College,Jiaxing 314051;China University of Petroleum,Qingdao 266580)
出处
《上海经济》
2021年第3期1-14,共14页
Shanghai Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金:“环境与发展双重约束下技术进步方向的决定机制与调控政策研究”(71773083)。
关键词
增长可持续性
全要素生产率
资本产出比
结构转换
Sustainability of Economic Growth
Total Factor Productivity
Capital Output Ratio
Structural Transformation
