摘要
[目的/意义]竞争性假设分析法(ACH)是美国著名情报学者小理查兹·J.休尔创新提出的情报分析实用方法,我国学者对其保持了较高关注。休尔为ACH方法创立了多个具有特殊含义的关键概念。准确理解这些概念,是正确理解、运用和研究该方法的重要前提。[方法/过程]结合实际运用经验,采用文献比较研究方法,以休尔在不同历史时期关于ACH方法的阐述为基础,对假设(hypothesis)、假定(assumption)、证据(evidence)、结论(conclusion)等4个关键概念进行了辨析,呈现了休尔的本原思想。[结果/结论]研究认为,在ACH方法中,假设是新生的、需要检验的猜想;假定是已有的、用来批判的理解认识;证据所指广泛,涉及客观和主观,也有加以检验的必要;结论并非计算结果,而是对证据与假设关系的全面反映,是未来工作的重要参考。
[Purpose/Significance]Analysis of Competing Hypotheses(ACH)is a methodology of intelligence analysis practice innovatively developed by the famous U.S.theorist Richards J.Heuer,Jr.,to which Chinese scholars have been paying much attention.Heuer has created several key concepts with particular meanings for ACH.To understand,use and study ACH correctly,it is important to understand these concepts accurately as the first step.[Method/Process]Combining practical application experience,adopting the research method of literature comparison,and based on Heuer's arguments on ACH in different historical periods,this paper discriminates and analyzes four key concepts,including hypothesis,assumption,evidence and conclusion,and reflects Heuer's original thoughts.[Result/Conclusion]This paper concludes that in ACH,hypotheses are newly developed ideas and need to be tested;assumptions are existing beliefs and need to be criticized;evidence,which is to be interpreted very broadly,refers to all factors,both objective and subjective,and needs to be checked;conclusions are not the calculation results,but comprehensive presentations of the relationship between evidence and hypotheses,which serve as important guidance for future work.
作者
李星煜
Li Xingyu(Information Engineering University,Zhengzhou 450001)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第6期59-64,共6页
Journal of Intelligence
关键词
情报分析
竞争性假设分析法
文献比较研究
关键概念
逻辑推论
intelligence analysis
analysis of competing hypotheses
literature comparative research
key concepts
logical deduction
