摘要
目的:情景模拟北京市分别作为疫情传播和暴发城市下新型冠状病毒肺炎不同流行程度,并分析北京市发热门诊医疗资源应对能力,为优化北京市重大疫情下医疗资源的空间布局提供科学依据。方法:应用广义SEIR(susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed)模型进行情景模拟,根据医疗资源、人口流动以及封禁措施等因素预测北京市的新型冠状病毒肺炎流行情况,并应用改进的两步移动搜寻法计算北京市发热门诊的空间可及性现状。结果:根据SEIR模型模拟得到低、中、高防控水平下北京市作为疫情传播城市单日最高感染人数分别为8514、183和68例,作为疫情暴发城市单日最高感染人数分别为22803、10868和3725例。北京市模拟为疫情传播城市时,在全市585个居民点中,低防控水平下有17个居民点(2.91%)发热门诊可及性好,41个居民点(7.01%)的发热门诊可及性较好,56个居民点(9.57%)的发热门诊可及性一般,62个居民点(10.60%)的发热门诊可及性较差,409个居民点(69.91%)发热门诊可及性差;中防控水平下只有房山区西部、门头沟区西部、延庆区北部、怀柔区北部和密云区北部可及性较差;高防控水平下有559个居民点(95.56%)的发热门诊可及性好,24个居民点(4.10%)的发热门诊可及性较好,2个居民点(0.34%)的发热门诊可及性一般,现有发热门诊可以满足需求。北京市模拟为疫情暴发城市时,低防控水平下仅1个居民点(0.17%)的发热门诊可及性好,5个居民点(0.86%)的发热门诊可及性较好,10个居民点(1.71%)的发热门诊可及性一般,12个居民点(2.05%)的发热门诊可及性较差,557个居民点(95.21%)的发热门诊可及性差;中防控和高防控下生态涵养区可及性均较差。结论:北京市发热门诊资源分布不均。北京市模拟作为疫情传播城市时,高防控水平下可适当减少发热门诊开放数量以避免交叉感染;中等防控水平时开设的发热门�
Objective:To simulate the different prevalence of corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Beijing as the spreading and the outbreak city and analyze the response capacity of its medical resources of fever clinics,and to provide a scientific basis for optimizing the spatial layout in Beijing under severe epidemics.Methods:The study obtained epidemiological indicators for COVID-19,factors about medical resources and population movement as parameters for the SEIR model and utilized the model to predict the maximum number of infections on a single day at different control levels in Beijing,simulated as an epidemic spreading city and an epidemic outbreak city respectively.The modified two-step floating catchment area method under ArcGIS 10.6 environment was used to analyze spatial accessibility to fever clinics services for the patients in Beijing.Results:According to the results of the SEIR model,the highest number of infections in a single day in Beijing simulated as an epidemic spreading city at low,medium and high levels of prevention and control were 8514,183,and 68 cases,the highest number of infections in a single day in Beijing simulated as an outbreak city was 22803,10868 and 3725 cases,respectively.The following result showed that Beijing was simulated as an epidemic spreading city:among the 585 communities in Beijing,under the low level of prevention and control,there were 17 communities(2.91%)with excellent accessibility to fever clinics,and that of 41 communities(7.01%)with fever clinics was good.Spatial accessibility of fever clinics in 56 communities(9.57%)was ranked average,and 62 communities’(10.60%)accessibility was fair and 409 communities(69.91%)had poor accessibility;at the medium level of prevention and control,only the west region of Fangshan District and Mentougou District,the north region of Yanqing District,Huairou District and Miyun District had poor accessibility;under the high level of prevention and control,559 communities’(95.56%)had excellent accessibility.The accessibility in 24 comm
作者
张佳伟
韩沛恩
杨莉
ZHANG Jia-wei;HAN Pei-en;YANG Li(Department of Health Policy and Management, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing 100191, China)
出处
《北京大学学报（医学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第3期543-548,共6页
Journal of Peking University:Health Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金(71673004、71911530221)。
关键词
发热门诊
空间可及性
两步移动搜寻法
SEIR模型
Fever clinics
Spatial accessibility
Two-step floating catchment area method
SEIR model
