摘要
2008年的金融危机使人们认识到金融稳定在中央银行政策目标中的重要性,各国的金融监管机构随之将防范系统性金融风险提到了更高的优先级,建立并不断完善了专司金融稳定的宏观审慎政策。然而,宏观审慎政策与货币政策既有区别又有联系,两者之间既有协调也存在冲突情形,因此如何实现宏观审慎政策与其他政策的有效协调,成为当前所面临的一项重要命题。文章建立含有金融部门及逆周期资本充足率宏观审慎政策工具的DSGE模型,分析了宏观审慎政策的适用性,并对政策的协调搭配问题进行了探讨。研究结果表明:宏观审慎政策有助于降低经济系统的波动性,然而过度强调金融稳定目标,可能会引起社会福利损失增加,有违宏观审慎政策的初衷。在轻度金融风险冲击下,传统货币政策即可有效应对,而当风险冲击程度提高之后,传统货币政策的功能边际下降明显,此时宏观审慎政策与扩展型货币政策组合的施政效果最佳。因此,需要综合考虑冲击类别、风险程度,差异化地实施政策安排,从而达到金融稳定和社会福利损失最小化的均衡点。
The current round of financial crisis has made people aware of the status of financial stability in the central bank’s policy objectives.Financial regulatory agencies around the world have subsequently raised the prevention of systemic financial risks to a higher priority.They established a macro-prudential policy dedicated to financial stability.However,macro-prudential policy and monetary policy are both different and related,and there are coordination and conflicts between the two.Therefore,how to achieve effective coordination between macro-prudential policies and other policies has become an important proposition currently facing.This paper establishes a DSGE model containing macro-prudential policy tools and counter-cyclical capital adequacy ratios,analyzes the applicability of macro-prudential policies,and discusses the coordination and collocation of policies.The research results show that macro-prudential policies can help reduce the volatility of the economic system.However,excessive emphasis on financial stability goals may increase social welfare losses,which is contrary to the original intention of macroprudential policy.Under mild financial risk shocks,traditional monetary policy can effectively respond.When the degree of risk shock increases,the functional margin of traditional monetary policy decreases significantly.At this time,the combination of macro-prudential policies and expanded monetary policy has the best effect.Therefore,it is necessary to comprehensively consider the types of shocks and the degree of risk,implement differentiated policy coordination arrangements,and achieve a balance point between financial stability and minimizing social welfare losses.
作者
邓翔
何瑞宏
DENG Xiang;HE Rui-hong(School of Economics,Sichuan University 610065)
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第5期76-88,共13页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(项目号71673194)“中国的人口、人口转变和经济增长”的阶段性成果之一。
关键词
宏观审慎政策
货币政策
金融稳定
政策协调
最优政策
Macro-prudential Policy
Monetary Policy
Financial Stability
Policy Coordination
Optimal policy
