摘要
燃料电池汽车是我国新能源汽车重点发展的方向,借助长三角“氢走廊”有可能率先突破。结合制约氢燃料电池汽车产业发展的四大因素,本文首先构建了由中央政府、氢能源产业链、氢燃料电池汽车整车厂商、基础设施部门和消费者组成的政策研究理论模型,以提高产业政策效用、促进氢燃料电池汽车产业化为目的,运用系统动力学对氢燃料电池汽车的财政补贴政策优化问题进行仿真研究。研究发现:在现有政策补贴的情况下,不能实现2030年100万辆氢燃料电池汽车保有量的目标;在制约氢燃料电池汽车发展的四大瓶颈中,加大对氢能源产业链的财政补贴能够有效提升产业化进程;为实现2030年的目标,需要进一步加大财政补贴力度,并向氢能源产业链倾斜。
As the last and most important technology road of new energy vehicles,hydrogen fuel cell vehicles(HFCV)are most likely to get further breakthroughs in the Hydrogen Corridor of Yangtze River Delta.By taking the four major factors that impeding the development of HFCV industry into consideration,this paper firstly established a G-HMIC(G:the central government;H:hydrogen energy industry chain;M:Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle manufacturer s;I:infrastructure departments;C:consumers)theoretical model for policy research on HFCV industry,and then constructed a system dynamics(SD)model to simulate the financial subsidy policy of HFCVs,so as to promote HFCV’s industrialization through improving the policy utilities.The research findings are as follows:(1)if we keep the existing financial subsidies,our country cannot achieve the CAO(Civilian Auto Ownership)goal of 100 million HFCVs by 2030;(2)among the four bottlenecks(HMIC)that restricting the development of HFCV industry,increasing the financial subsidy of“H”can effectively promote HFCV’s industrialization process;and(3)if we want to realize the CAO goal by 2030,the financial subsidy should be further increased,as well as the“H”sector should be given more attention.
作者
卢超
慕函岐
孙华平
CHAO LU;HANQI MU;HUAPING SUN(Shanghai University;Jiangsu University)
出处
《产业经济评论》
CSSCI
2021年第3期63-76,共14页
Review of Industrial Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目“关键利益相关者视角下新兴产业创新政策作用机制与仿真优化:以新能源汽车为例”(项目编号:71704101)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于全球价值链知识溢出的中国区域高碳产业低碳化转型路径研究”(项目编号:71774071)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“新能源汽车产业创新政策评估与优化:基于关键利益相关者的实证研究”(项目编号:17YJC630094)
江苏省社科基金重点专项项目“推进江苏深度融入全球创新网络研究”(20ZLA007)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
氢燃料电池汽车
财政补贴政策
系统动力学
仿真优化
hydrogen fuel cell vehicle
financial subsidy policy
system dynamics
simulation optimization
