摘要
本研究利用增长核算模型和两部门模型,考查了交通运输产业对经济增长的直接和间接影响。结果表明:(1)在直接效应方面,我国交通运输产业对经济增长的直接贡献效应总体呈波动发展态势,在各省间存在差异性;交通运输产业全要素生产率改进的贡献总体呈上升态势。(2)在间接效应方面,交通运输产业对经济增长具有正向拉动作用;各省交通运输产业对非交通运输产业的间接影响,在建成后的当年和次年最为明显,随后交通运输产业仍以直接拉动总产出增长的方式,在经济增长中发挥作用。资本和劳动投入的增加也将拉动经济增长,但资本投入增加的作用时间更长。(3)交通运输产业对劳动力和全要素生产率的影响,具有显著的单一门槛效应,将间接助推经济增长。为此,文章建议应在不断加强基础设施建设力度的同时,认清交通运输产业对不同地区经济增长的贡献存在差别,把握地区经济优势,稳步推进交通运输产业发展,提高交通运输在经济发展中的影响力、辐射力和聚集力。
Based on the growth accounting model and two-sector model,this paper examines the contribution of direct input and indirect spillovers of the transportation industry to economic growth.The results show that:(1)In terms of direct contribution,the impact of China’s transportation industry on economic growth generally fluctuates.There are differences between province;the overall trend is an increase in the contribution of transportation productivity improvements.(2)In terms of spillover effects,the transportation industry has a positive pulling effect on the growth of total output;the spillover effect of the province transportation industry on non-transportation industries is most obvious in the year and the year after completion.Subsequently,the way that transportation directly drives the growth of total output plays a role in economic growth.The growth rate of capital and labor input will also drive total output,but the role of capital will be longer.(3)The impact of the transportation industry on labor force and total factor productivity has a significant single threshold effect,which will indirectly promote economic growth.The article suggests that while continuously strengthening infrastructure construction,it is necessary to recognize the driving heterogeneity of the transportation industry in different provinces.Grasp the regional economic advantages,steadily promote the development of the transportation industry,and improve the influence,radiation and aggregation of transportation in economic development.
作者
昝欣
欧国立
Zan Xin;Ou Guoli
出处
《兰州学刊》
CSSCI
2021年第5期116-129,共14页
基金
北京交通大学中央高校基本科研业务费重大培育项目“高铁对中国城市体系结构及经济极化效应的影响研究”(项目编号:2020JBWZD001)。
关键词
交通运输产业
经济增长
贡献分解
transportation industry
economic growth
contribution decomposition
