摘要
城市内涝风险区划图对内涝风险预警与防灾减灾具有重要意义。以海口市海甸岛为例,基于PCSWMM软件构建城市管网-地表径流耦合模拟的一二维水文水动力模型,采用情景模拟计算最大水深、淹没时间和最大流速等洪涝特征指标,耦合高程、坡度、坡向、距河网距离、排水管道长度、建筑物面积构建风险指标体系。分别采用TOPSIS和模糊C聚类统计分析方法进行内涝风险区划。计算结果与实际暴雨淹没对比分析表明:构建的数值模拟-统计分析模型可较好的反映研究区的风险分布。对水动力指标和统计分析方法的扰动进行敏感性分析,结果表明:数值模拟-统计分析模型的内涝风险区划结果对不同统计分析方法的敏感性更高,对水动力指标选择敏感性较低。因此在风险区划中更应重视评估方法的精准性。
Urban flood risk zoning maps are of great significance for flood risk early warning and disaster prevention and mitigation.This paper develops a 2-D hydrologic-hydraulic model for linking urban pipe network with surface runoff based on PCSWMM.To formulate a flood risk index system,it integrates the water flow characteristics indexes-including maximum depth,submergence duration,and maximum velocity-with a variety of topographic features:elevation,slope,slope direction,distance from river network,drainage pipe length,and building footprint.Flooding risk zones are delineated using TOPSIS and fuzzy C clustering analysis separately.Comparison of the calculations with observed inundation data shows this hydrologic-hydraulic-statistical analysis model can well predict the spatial distribution of flood risk across the study area.Sensitivity analysis on the choice of water flow indexes and the choice of statistical analysis methods shows that the flood risk zoning generated by the numerical modelingstatistical analysis model is more sensitive to the choice of statistical analysis methods,and less sensitive to the choice of hydrodynamic indexes.Thus,more attention should be paid to the validity of statistical analysis methods for flood risk zoning.
作者
冯文强
徐奎
郭祺忠
许红师
李明财
FENG Wenqiang;XU Kui;GUO Qizhong;XU Hongshi;LI Mingcai(School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350;Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Rutgers University-New Brunswick,Piscataway,New Jersey 08854 USA;School of Water Conservancy Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001;Tianjin Key Laboratory of Marine Meteorology,Tianjin 300074;Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Science,Tianjin 300074)
出处
《水力发电学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第5期56-67,共12页
Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
基金
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2017ZX07106001)
国家自然科学基金(51509179)
天津市自然科学基金(20JCQNJC01540)。
关键词
城市内涝
风险区划
水文水动力模型
统计分析
敏感性分析
urban flooding
risk mapping
hydrologic-hydraulic model
statistical analysis
sensitivity analysis
