摘要
新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称新冠肺炎)扩散周期规律的精确解析是因时因地调整防控措施的重要依据之一。新冠肺炎在我国经历了"增长-衰减"的扩散周期,其扩散过程呈现出明显的时空差异性特征。基于全国2019年12月31日-2020年3月23日新冠肺炎确诊病例数据,通过统计分析,从时间维度和空间维度深入探讨了全国新冠肺炎的扩散周期和空间分布。研究结果表明:(1)在省级和地级尺度上,研究时间段内的首例确诊病例时间、峰值时间和最后一例确诊病例时间的离散程度依次增大;(2)在及时采取防控措施的前提下,新冠肺炎呈现"增长期短、衰减期长"的显著特征;(3)湖北省增长期最长,但与湖北省接壤的省级行政区增长期相对较短;(4)衰减期在空间上呈自东向西逐渐减少的趋势。新冠肺炎扩散周期时空变化规律可为公共卫生突发事件的活动预期与防控提供案例参考。
A precise analysis of the spread cycle pattern of novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)is one of the important bases to adjusting prevention and control measures according to time and place.COVID-19 undergoes a growth-decay cycle in China.And its spread process shows obvious spatio-temporal differences.Based on national data of diagnosed cases of COVID-19 from December 31,2019,to March 23,2020,we explored the spread cycle and spatial distribution of COVID-19 in China from spatial and temporal dimensions.The results show that(1)at the provincial and local scales,the dispersions of times of the first confirmed case,the peak time and the last diagnosed case of COVID-19 within the study period increase in turn.(2)Under the premise of timely prevention and control measures,COVID-19 presents a situation of short growth period and long decay period.(3)Hubei Province has the longest growth period,but the growth periods of provincial administrative regions bordering Hubei Province are relatively short.(4)The decay period shows a spatial decreasing trend from east to west in China.The spatio-temporal variation rules of the spread cycle of coronavirus can provide a case reference for the activity expectation and prevention and control of public health emergencies.
出处
《地理空间信息》
2021年第5期1-5,I0005,共6页
Geospatial Information
基金
四川省国际科技合作与交流资助项目(2020YFH0060)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41977245)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目。
关键词
新冠肺炎
确诊病例
增长期
衰减期
时空分布
COVID-19
diagnosed case
growth period
decay period
spatio-temporal distribution
