摘要
中国润滑油基础油经历了产能扩张期,中低端产能已经饱和,未来仅有高端产能布局空间。“十四五”中国润滑油需求总量将进入平台期,车用润滑油换油周期延长和汽车保有量增速放缓将影响交通用油,智能制造将推动工业用油形成量减质升的变化。因此,润滑油将进入从数量增加向质量升级、新产品开发方向发展,新能源车用润滑油成为交通用油重要领域,高端环保工业用润滑油增量空间扩大。未来润滑油市场竞争更加激烈,润滑油市场集中度向大品牌靠拢,科技水平将成为未来润滑油行业竞争的主要利器。同时,中国润滑油添加剂比例和产量与发达国家相比差距较大,添加剂国产化势在必行。
China's lube base oil capacity has experienced expansion period,with the medium and low-end products capacity saturated and the layout space only left for high-end products capacity in the future.China's total lube oil demand will start to plateau during the 14th Five-Year Plan,since the extended oil change cycle of automobile lubricating oil and slow car ownership growth rate will curb lube oil in transportation sector,and the intelligent manufacturing will promote industrial lube oil quantity reduction and quality improvement.So,lube market will shift from quantity increase to quality upgrading and new product development,in which new energy vehicles will become an important field of transportation lube oil,and more space will be left for high-end and environmentally-friendly industrial lube oil.The lube market competition will be fiercer in the future,increasingly focusing on big brands and technological levels.Meanwhile,the gap of the proportion and production of China’s lube oil additives compared with developed countries is relatively large,and localization of lube oil additives production is imperative.
作者
杨晨
Yang Chen(Sinopec Economics&Development Research Institute Company Limited,Beijing 100029,China)
出处
《当代石油石化》
CAS
2021年第4期29-33,共5页
Petroleum & Petrochemical Today
关键词
“十四五”
润滑油
供需
14th Five-Year Plan
lube
supply and demand
