摘要
2019年6月20日到22日,达州市出现持续性强降雨,降雨引发多起地质灾害,造成一定的财产损失.本文利用达州市地质灾害环境监测站提供的地质灾害灾情险情资料,与基于概率分布的达州市地质灾害预报预警平台发布的地质灾害产品进行了检验.结果表明:准确的降水量级预报是地质灾害气象风险预警的基础.降水量预报偏小可能引起地质灾害气象风险预警平台预报等级偏低,导致地质灾害漏报;反之则可能引起空报.地质灾害预报预警平台成功预报了“6.20-6.22”期间的地质灾害,按照地质行业的《标准》预报准确率达到83.3%;按照中国气象局《规范》命中率达到61.1%.各项指标表明,预警平台有很好的指导作用.
From June 20 to 22,2019,continuous heavy rainfall occurred in Dazhou city,which caused many geological disasters and caused certain property losses.In this paper,the geological hazard data provided by Dazhou Geological hazard environmental monitoring station are used to test the geological hazard products released by Dazhou geological hazard forecast and warning platform based on probability distribution.The results show that the accurate precipitation forecast is of great significance to the meteorological risk warning of geological disasters.The weak precipitation forecast may lead to the low forecast level of meteorological risk warning platform for geological disasters,which may lead to the omission of geological disasters.Otherwise it may cause a null report.The platform successfully predicted geological disasters during the period of“6.20-6.22”,with the prediction accuracy reaching 83.3%according to the“Standard”of the geological industry.According to the China Meteorological Administration,the hit rate reached 61.1 percent.The indicators show that the early warning platform plays a very good guiding role.
作者
于竹娟
罗贵东
YU Zhujuan;LUO Guidong(Dazhou Meteorological Bureau,Dazhou Sichuan 635000,China)
出处
《四川文理学院学报》
2021年第2期150-155,共6页
Sichuan University of Arts and Science Journal
基金
达州市科学技术局“达州市地质灾害(滑坡)与降水关系研究”(17YYJC0003)。
关键词
达州
强降水
地质灾害
风险预警
Dazhou
heavy rain
geological hazards
risk early warning
