摘要
电能表不同故障模式的失效分布特征不同,诱发其失效的应力类型和退化过程也各有差异。文中提出了一种基于多应力影响威布尔分布模型的电能表寿命预判方法,应力类型主要包括环境应力及电应力。利用电能表实测历史故障数据建立各故障模式失效率威布尔分布模型,进而针对主要影响应力类型,建立影响应力与各故障模式失效率之间的模型,并计算影响系数,通过调整各故障模式的预测阶段失效率,获得整体电能表的近期寿命。经现场实际电能表故障数据验证,其累计失效率偏差率平均值为1.99%,失效数偏差率平均值为4.41%,表明该方法可有效预判电能表寿命,为电能表状态更换、故障预警提供技术支撑。
The failure distribution characteristics of different failure modes of electricity meter are different,and the stress types and degradation processes that induce their failures also differ.This paper proposes a method for predicting the life of electricity meter based on multi-stress influence Weibull distribution model.The stress types mainly include environmental stress and electrical stress.Historical fault data of electricity meter is used to establish Weibull distribution model of failure rate of each failure mode,and then,for the main types of influence stress,a model is established between the influence stress and failure rate of each failure mode,and the influence coefficient is calculated.The short-term life of the overall electricity meter is obtained by adjusting the failure rate at the predicted stage of each failure mode.By verifying fault data of the actual electricity meter in field,the average deviation rate of the cumulative failure rate is 1.99%,the average deviation rate of the number of failures is 4.41%,showing that the proposed method can effectively predict the life of the electricity meter,and provide technical support for electricity meter status replacement,and fault early warning.
作者
章江铭
姚力
徐韬
陆春光
刘炜
周佑
Zhang Jiangming;Yao Li;Xu Tao;Lu Chunguang;Liu Wei;Zhou You(Marketing Service Center,State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310014,China)
出处
《电测与仪表》
北大核心
2021年第5期195-200,共6页
Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation
基金
国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目(5211DS16002D)。
关键词
多应力模型
威布尔分布
电能表
失效率
寿命预判
multi-stress model
Weibull distribution
electricity meter
failure rate
life prediction
