摘要
城市扩张趋势及驱动机制研究存在两大难题:(1)传统景观数据的混合像元问题影响城市扩张趋势研究的准确性;(2)城市扩张驱动因子的共线性问题影响驱动机制研究结论的可靠性。针对上述问题,以南京市为例,利用不透水表面分析结果,采用不透水面加权平均重心分析、线性方向均值分析及标准差椭圆分析方法开展2000~2017年城市扩张趋势研究,并利用偏最小二乘回归分析方法对城市扩张驱动机制开展定性及定量分析。结果表明:南京市整体上表现为多中心非同步的蔓延式扩张;2000~2017年的3个时间跨度内,南京市整体的不透水表面扩张速度不断增长,年均不透水表面加权平均重心转移距离分别为303,379,611 m,全市尺度上往顺时针偏北259.12°方向转移2564 m,具体到各辖区,重心转移距离存在较大差异;城市扩张的外部形态特征具有明显的方向性,2000、2005、2010以及2017年4个时期,不透水表面的标准差椭圆扁率均在2.232以上,主要表现为南北向扩张,各辖区扩张方向性不同;城市外部空间特征及发展战略、河流水系及自然保护区分布、土地利用规划等因素表现为对城市扩张方向的约束和限制作用;第二产业从业人员数量、人口密度、第三产业固定资产投资额、地区生产总值、城乡人均可支配收入等因素成为影响城市扩张规模的主要因素。
There exists two difficult issues in study of the trend and driving mechanism of urban expansion:(1) Maxed pixels of traditional landscape data reduce the accuracy of urban expansion trend research.(2) Collinearity of the driving factors affects the reliability of driving mechanism. To fix these problems, taking Nanjing City for example, the impervious surface was used to conduct weighted average barycenter analysis, linear direction mean analysis and standard deviation elliptic analysis to study the urban growth characteristics. Driving mechanism of urban growth was studied through combination analysis qualitatively and quantitatively(Partial least squares regression, PLS). Results showed that imperious surface in Nanjing showed multicentric and inconsonant expansion. Gravity center transfer distance of impervious surface increased over the three periods(2000 to 2005, 2005 to 2010, 2010 to 2017), which annual gravity center transfer distances were 303, 379 and 611 m respectively. In general, the gravity center transferred 2 564 m to the direction that 259.12 degrees to the north clockwise. The exterior morphological characteristics of urban growth had obvious directivity, which the oblateness of the standard deviation elliptic of the impervious surface were all larger than 2.23 in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2017. The external spatial characteristics of the administrative region, distribution of rivers and nature reserves, and the land use plan were the main factors that constrain and limit the direction of urban expansion. The number of employees in the secondary industry, population density, fixed assets investment in the tertiary industry, regional GDP, and per capita disposable income in urban and rural areas were the main factors that influenced the scale of urban expansion.
作者
李发志
朱高立
姬超
侯大伟
孙华
LI Fa-zhi;ZHU Gao-li;JI Chao;HOU Da-wei;SUN Hua(College of Land Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China;College of Public Administration,Nanjing University of Finance Economics,Nanjing 210023,China)
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第3期575-590,共16页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
南京市社会科学基金项目(18CB10)
自然资源(耕地)资产负债表编制试点(CO202000310)。
关键词
不透水表面
城市扩张
空间特征
偏最小二乘回归分析
驱动机制
impervious surface
urban growth
spatial variation characteristic
partial least squares regression
driving factor
