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中尺度碘化银催化数值模式在人工影响天气业务中的应用试验 被引量:5

Research on application of the mesoscale silver iodide seeding numerical model
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摘要 数值模式越来越多地应用于人工影响天气业务工作中。文中着眼北京地区人工影响天气业务对数值模式预报的需求,结合地基作业的特点,初步进行了碘化银(AgI)冷云催化数值模式在人工影响天气业务中的应用试验。试验采用同化了多种观测资料的北京睿图快速更新和多尺度分析预报系统-临近子系统(RMAPS-ST,Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Short Term)的预报结果做为初始场,运用耦合了冷云催化模块的中尺度数值模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)进行冷云催化数值试验,催化模块添加在Morrison双参数微物理方案中,考虑了水汽在人工冰核上的凝华核化、凝结冻结和接触冻结核化过程,模拟范围覆盖北京地区所有的地面作业站点以及华北人工影响天气飞机作业区域。业务试验包括运行对照试验以判定具有催化潜力的地基作业站点及催化信息、进行预催化模拟和实际作业后的催化模拟。个例应用显示,冷云催化数值模式的业务试验可以预判未来一定时段内人工影响天气相关物理量场的变化及作业效果,可为前期人工影响天气地面作业方案的制定提供参考,后期可进行实际作业信息输入进行催化模拟,对比验证与分析可以改进和优化流程算法,不断提升制定地面作业方案的科技水平。 Numerical models are increasingly applied in operational weather modification.This paper focuses on the demand for model forecasting results in operational application of weather modification in Beijing,and combines with the characteristics of ground seeding to study the application of the silver iodide(AgI)cold cloud seeding numerical model.Results are as follows:The initial condition of the AgI cold cloud seeding numerical simulation comes from the Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Short Team(RMAPS-ST)forecast results,which assimilate a variety of observation data.The simulation area covers all ground operational stations in Beijing and North China shadow aircraft operation area.The AgI cold cloud seeding module is incorporated into the WRF Morrison two-moment microphysics scheme,which mainly considers the contact freezing nucleation between ice particles and clouds and raindrops,and the condensation process of water vapor on artificial-ice nucleus.The operational application includes three main steps:Running control experiment,running pre-seeding simulation and running re-simulation.The application of examples shows that the real-time products of cold cloud seeding numerical model can predict the physical field changes and seeding effects in a certain period of time in the future,which can provide a reference for the formulation of the preliminary ground operation plan.By comparing with the actual operation information re-input simulation,it can continuously improve the scientific and technological level of the development of the ground operation plan,and play an important role in the application of weather modification.
作者 刘香娥 何晖 高茜 王永庆 杨燕 LIU Xiang’e;HE Hui;GAO Qian;WANG Yongqing;YANG Yan(Beijing Weather Modification Office,Beijing 100089,China;Key Laboratory of Beijing for Cloud,Precipitation and Atmospheric Water Resources,Beijing 100089,China;Institute of Urban Meteorology,CMA,Beijing 100089,China;Field Experiment Base of Cloud and Precipitation Research in North China,CMA,Beijing 101200,China)
出处 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2021年第2期359-368,共10页 Acta Meteorologica Sinica
基金 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0601704) 国家自然科学基金项目(42005078、41675138、41805114) 北京市气象局云降水物理研究和云水资源开发北京市重点实验室联合基金项目(BMBKJ201905006) 北京市自然科学基金项目(8182024)。
关键词 冷云催化 数值模式 人工影响天气 Cold cloud seeding Numerical model Weather modification
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