摘要
[目的/意义]谣言诱发公众恐慌情绪,恐慌情绪极易导致过激行为,过激行为又易演变成为突发事件。这一系列连锁反应对社会安定造成严重威胁、对公众带来巨大损失。[方法/过程]相对于传播时间来说,谣言对恐慌情绪的诱发具有即时性,因此,该文建立了谣言和恐慌情绪并行传播的双传播模型,给出了平均场方程。通过数学方法和仿真模拟,研究了双传播模型中谣言和恐慌情绪各自的传播阈值及它们的传播规律。[结果/结论]研究结果表明谣言和恐慌情绪的传播阈值均存在。推导出谣言及恐慌情绪独立系统中谣言和恐慌情绪的传播阈值,分析出谣言及恐慌情绪关联系统中传播阈值的变化特征。研究还发现谣言和恐慌情绪的并行传播对彼此产生相互促进的作用。
[Purpose/Significance]Rumors induce panic in the public and panic leads to aggressive behavior,moreover,aggressive behavior evolves into emergencies.These series of chain reactions pose serious threats to social stability and bring huge losses to the public.[Method/Process]Relative to the propagation period,rumors can instantly induce panic emotions.Therefore,a dual-spreading model is built in which rumor and panic are spread simultaneously in this paper,and the mean-field equations are established.Through mathematical methods and simulations,the spreading thresholds of rumor and panic emotion of the dual-spreading model and their propagation laws are studied.[Result/Conclusion]The results illustrate that the spreading thresholds of rumor and panic emotion both exist.The specific spreading thresholds under the independent system of rumor and panic and the change characteristics of spreading thresholds under the dependent system of theirs are obtained,respectively.We also found that the parallel spreading of rumor and panic has a mutually reinforcing effect on each other.
作者
王佳佳
邱小燕
Wang Jiajia;Qiu Xiaoyan(School of Emergency Science,Xihua University,Chengdu 610039;School of Economics and Management,Shanghai Institute of Technology,Shanghai 201418)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期200-206,F0003,199,共9页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“新媒体环境中考虑个体和群体差异的谣言传播规律与干预策略研究”(编号:16YJC630117)研究成果之一。
关键词
网络谣言
恐慌情绪
双传播模型
传播阈值
传播规律
仿真模拟
internet rumor
panic emotion
dual-spreading model
spreading threshold
propagation law
simulation
