摘要
为了研究广西沿海城市降水演变规律及其归因分析,选用morlet小波分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、线性趋势法、重标极差R/S法等多种方法,对钦州、北海两座典型沿海城市气象站1953-2017年共计65 a逐日降水数据进行析,研究其降水序列变化的周期性、突变性、趋势性等特点,并结合两座城市所处的地理位置进行了归因分析。结果表明:钦州由于受海洋气候和大陆气候的双重影响,存在56 a、24 a两个显著的周期性变化规律;北海由于三面环海,降水序列存在着57a、35a、10a三个明显的周期性变化规律;两个城市的降水序列都没有发生实质性的突变,且呈微弱的上升变化趋势。
In order to study the evolution law and attribution analysis of rainfall in coastal cities of Guangxi,multiple methods including Morlet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall mutation test,linear fitting,rescaled range R/S method were used to analyze the daily rainfall data from the meteorological stations in two typical coastal cities of Qinzhou and Beihai in the past 65 years from 1953 to 2017.The periodicity,mutation and tendency of rainfall sequence changes were studied,and attribution analysis was made combined with geographical locations of these two cities.The results of study demonstrate that there exist two distinct periodic change laws of 56a and 24a in Qinzhou due to the dual influence of Marine climate and continental climate.Because Beihai is surrounded by the sea on three sides,the rainfall sequence has three distinct periodic change laws of 57a,35a and 10a.The rainfall sequence of the two cities have no substantial mutation and show a slight upward trend.
作者
魏炜
李程程
莫崇勋
申鹏杨
WEI Wei;LI Cheng-cheng;MO Chong-xun;SHEN Peng-yang(Guangxi Transport Vocational and Technical College,Nanning 530023,China;College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China)
出处
《广西水利水电》
2021年第2期47-51,共5页
Guangxi Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering
基金
2020年度广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(2020KY34009)。
