摘要
以甘肃省天祝藏族自治县2008—2017年农牧民家庭人均可支配收入为研究对象,通过对天祝藏族自治县和甘肃省总体农村居民家庭之间人均可支配收入作对比分析,发现二者均值之间存在一定差距。利用线性趋势拟合模型,对2008—2017年天祝藏族自治县的农牧民家庭人均可支配收入进行了统计分析,并对未来5年的收入趋势作出预测。从预测结果可以得出天祝县农牧民家庭人均可支配收入呈现出一种稳步上升趋势,到2021年有望突破9000元,预测结果可为政府部门出台相关少数民族政策提供理论依据和决策参考。
This paper takes the per capita disposable income of farmers and herdsmen in Tianzhu Tibetan Autonomous county of Gansu Province from 2008 to 2017 as the research object.Through the comparative analysis of the per capita disposable income of rural households between Tianzhu Tibetan Autonomous county and Gansu Province as a whole,it is found that there is a certain gap between the two average values.Using linear trend fitting model,this paper makes a statistical analysis of the per capita disposable income of farmers and herdsmen in Tianzhu Tibetan Autonomous county from 2008 to 2017,and forecasts the income trend in the next five years.From the forecasting results,it can be concluded that the per capita disposable income of farmers and herdsmen in Tianzhu county is in a steady rising state,and it is expected to break through the 9000 yuan by 2021.The results of this paper could provide theoretical basis and decision-making reference for the relevant minority policies issued by the government departments.
作者
牛雪娜
史战红
杨娟
Niu Xuena;Shi Zhanhong;Yang Juan(College of Science,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《甘肃科学学报》
2021年第2期14-17,共4页
Journal of Gansu Sciences
基金
甘肃省社科规划项目(YB063)
甘肃省科技计划资助(20CX9ZA101)。
关键词
线性趋势拟合模型
天祝藏族自治县
农牧民收入
预测分析
Linear trend filting model
Tianzhu Tibetan Autonomous county
Income of farmers and herdsmen
Predictive analysis
