摘要
本文在增值税抵扣机制的投入产出价格模型中引入社保费和成本传导机制,并利用2017年中国投入产出表和税收数据模拟分析了不同成本传导率条件下,减税降费的价格效应和福利效应。研究表明:(1)减税降费使得各行业产品价格降低,对第三产业的价格影响最为明显。(2)成本传导率越高,则产品价格的下降幅度越大。当成本传导率分别为1/3、2/3和1时,各行业产品价格的平均下降幅度分别为0.32%、0.93%和2.66%。(3)较为合理的中国整体成本传导率约为1/3,减税降费是2019年中国PPI下降的主要因素之一。当成本传导率为1/3时,模拟计算的PPI下降幅度与国家统计局公布的2019年PPI的下降幅度(-0.3%)非常接近。(4)减税降费使消费者价格下降,居民福利得以改善,且城镇居民福利改善高于农村居民。随着价格传导率增大,城镇居民与农村居民的人均福利改善差距扩大。
Tax reduction and fee reduction are key parts of fiscal policy that play important roles in stimulating economic vitality.The effect of tax reduction on firms'costs is closely related to the cost transmission rate.From the macro perspective,the producer price will drop if the cost of taxes and fees is partially transmitted.This will further reduce production cost and thus increase firns'profits.However,producer prices are also affected by many other factors,such as strong market demand.When demand is greater than supply,producer prices may rise.This leads to our research question:what is the price effect of the tax and fee reduction policy implemented in China(especially in 2019)and how does this policy influence consumers'welfare?This paper evaluates the effects by constructing an input-output price model with a cost transmission rate.Indirect taxes and fees such as VAT,social security fees,and other production taxes are embedded in the input-output model.The paper focuses on the price and welfare effects of tax and fee reduction.It analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of different tax and fee reduction policies by designing different structural tax reduction scenarios.Our results show that tax cuts and fee reductions decrease product price and production cost in all industries.The price reduction in the service sector is the highest.The higher the cost transmission rate,the larger the price reduction.When the cost transmission rate is 1/3,the estimated degree of reduction of PPI is the closest to the actual PPI change.Regarding the welfare effect,tax cuts and fee reductions decrease the consumer price and thus improve household welfare.The welfare improvement of a urban household is greater than that of a rural household.The welfare improvement discrepancy between urban households and rural households increases with the increasing cost transmission rate.This paper's main marginal contributions are as follows.First,by introducing the cost transmission mechanism,this paper constructs an input-output price mo
作者
倪红福
闫冰倩
NI Hongfu;YAN Bingqian(Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期38-55,共18页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“突发性公共卫生事件的全球价值链重构效应:基于生产网络结构一般均衡模型方法”(72073142)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国产业迈向价值链中高端:理论内涵、测度和路径分析”(71873142)
2017投入产出研究课题减税降费的效应分析和国家自然科学基金重点项目“全球价值链视角下的国内区域分工与市场一体化研究”(71733003)的资助。
关键词
减税降费
投入产出价格模型
非完全成本传导
生产者价格
福利效应
Tax Cuts and Fee Reductions
Input-Output Price Model
Incomplete Price Transmission
Producer Price
Welfare Effect
