摘要
2019年10月,伴随携号转网全面实施,工业和信息化部及国务院国有资产监督管理委员会加强行业竞争监管,开启三大电信运营商的竞合变革。利用马尔可夫链模型分析移动通信市场占有率的变化,创新性地通过对比研究通信行业竞争环境变化前后的状态转移概率矩阵,预测移动通信市场格局短期发展趋势。研究发现,行业竞合变革影响大于携号转网政策影响,移动电话用户留在本网的概率反而有所提升。根据行业竞合变革后的状态转移概率矩阵预测,未来中短期3家运营商的竞争格局呈现中国电信移动市场占有率提升,中国移动和中国联通移动市场占有率下降的趋势,但是中国移动的市场占有率仍居第一位。未来行业竞合还需进一步加强法律建设、政策监管、共建共享和运营管理,加快5G及高质量发展,开拓移动通信市场新格局。
In October 2019,with the nationwide implementation of mobile number portability,MIIT and SASAC strengthened industry competition supervision and initiated the industry co-competition of the three major telecom operators in China.The short-term development trend of China mobile communications market was predicted by utilizing Markov chain model to analyze the changes in the market share of mobile communication market,and the state transition probability matrixes before and after the change of the industry’s competitive environment caused by regulatory policies were innovatively compared.The study shows that the impact of industry co-competition reform is greater the nationwide implementation of MNP,the probability of mobile users to lock-in has increased.According to the prediction of the state transition probability matrix after industry co-competition,China Telecom’s mobile market share will increase,while China Mobile and China Unicom Mobile’s market share will decline in the short and medium term.However,China Mobile will continue to maintain its dominant position.To accelerate 5G high-quality development and open up a new pattern in the mobile communication market,the industry co-competition environment needs to be further optimized to strengthen regulatory policy,5Gco-construction,and operation management.
作者
刁塑
蒋成
DIAO Su;JIANG Cheng(Sichuan Branch of China Telecom Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610015,China;China Telecom Group Corporation,Beijing 100033,China)
出处
《电信科学》
2021年第3期154-161,共8页
Telecommunications Science
关键词
行业竞合
携号转网
移动市场占有率
马尔可夫链
状态转移概率矩阵
industry co-competition
mobile number portability
mobile market share
Markov chain
state transition probability matrix
