摘要
本文利用1998—2007年中国工业企业微观数据,结合同时期天气数据,考察了温度变化对工业生产的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,工业产出与温度变化之间存在非线性关系:夏季温度升高显著降低了工业产出,而冬季温度升高则会增加工业产出;日均温度低于或高于[12℃,15℃]均会负向影响工业产出。此外,温度的季节性波动也会给工业产出带来不利影响。进一步的影响机制检验结果表明,高温会通过降低工业企业的全要素生产率、固定资产总值、投资以及创新能力而间接影响其产出。从分样本的估计结果来看,夏季温度升高对工业产出的负向影响会因企业所处行业和所有权的不同而存在差异。最后,本文预测未来气候变暖将导致我国工业产出在中期下降约3.0%—14.6%,在长期下降约5.9%—20.0%。
We use Chinese industrial enterprises database and daily weather data from 1998 to 2007 to study the effect of temperature changes on industrial production and investigate the channels through which temperature affects industrial production. We find a nonlinear relationship between industrial output and temperature: Output responds negatively to elevated summer temperatures and positively to higher winter temperatures;Relative to a day at [12℃,15℃], one additional day at other temperature ranges reduces output. We also find that increased temperature variability is harmful to industrial output. Further analysis indicates that high temperatures reduce output by negatively influencing firm TFP, capital stock, investment and innovation. We find that these temperature effects differ considerably across industries and ownerships. We project that industrial output in China is expected to decrease by 3.0%-14.6% by 2070 and 5.9%-20.0% by 2100.
作者
杨璐
史京晔
陈晓光
LU YANG;JINGYE SHI;XIAOGUANG CHEN(Nanjing University of Finance and Economics;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《经济学（季刊）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第5期299-320,共22页
China Economic Quarterly
基金
国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金(71822302)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71673224)
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71804152)
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目(2019SJA0260)的资助。
关键词
温度变化
工业生产
机制分析
temperature changes
industrial production
mechanism analysis
