摘要
2017/2018榨季全球糖市供给过剩,导致糖价低位运行,全球高果糖甜味剂(HFS)的生产除中国保持增长外,其他国家或地区均处于停滞或下降局面。2018/2019榨季和2019/2020榨季全球高果糖甜味剂产量分别为1390万t和1310万t。全球高果糖甜味剂生产发展呈几个特点:第一,HFS产量从2012/2013榨季的1342万t增长到2016/2017榨季的1417万t,近3年有所下滑;第二,HFS生产以北美和中美洲为主,亚洲其次,这两者占全球产量的89.85%,其中,HFS生产高度集中在美国和中国,两国产量占全球产量的74%以上;第三,美国瓶装水增速超过碳酸软饮料的增速,并且墨西哥从美国淀粉糖进口需求下降;第四,近10年中国淀粉糖产量快速增长,是亚洲淀粉糖增长的主要因素。然而,2020/2021榨季中国淀粉糖产量增幅受限,主要原因为菲律宾对软饮料中的高果糖浆(High fructose corn syrup,HFCS)征税,导致进口需求降低、利润率下滑、玉米深加工补贴不可持续、玉米价格上涨影响;第五,近两年欧盟HFCS生产受低糖价和低需求的影响,2020/2021榨季可能有所复苏。2020/2021榨季全球高果糖甜味剂生产复苏可能较大。
The oversupply of global sugar market in 2017/2018 crushing season led to low sugar prices.The global production of high fructose sweeteners(HFS)is stagnant or declining in other countries or regions except China,which has maintained growth.The global production of HFS in 2018/2019 and 2019/2020 crushing season was 13.9 million tone and 13.1 million tone,respectively.The global production and development of HFS showed several char⁃acteristics:first,HFS production was up to 14.17 million tone in the 2016/2017 crushing season from 13.42 million tone in 2012/2013 crushing season,which had declined in last three years.Second,HFS production was dominated by North and Central America,followed by Asia,which accounted for 89.85%of global production.HFS production was highly concentrated in the United States and China,which accounted for more than 74%of global production.Third,bottled water in the United States was growing faster than carbonated soft drinks,and Mexico's demand for American starch sugar imports had fallen.Fourth,the rapid growth of Chinese starch sugar production in the past 10 years was the main factor in the growth of Asian starch sugar.However,the increase of starch sugar production in China during the 2020/2021 crushing season was limited due to the import demand reduction of HFCS(High fruc⁃tose corn syrup)by taxation in Philippines,lower profit margins,unsustainable subsidies for deep processing of corn,and higher prices of corn.Fifth,HFCS production in the EU in the last two years was affected by low sugar prices and low demand,and may recover in 2020/2021 crushing season.The recovery of global HFS production is likely to be greater in 2020/2021 crushing season.
作者
刘晓雪
岳俊秀
王慧娟
LIU Xiaoxue;YUE Junxiu;WANG Huijuan(Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048)
出处
《中国糖料》
2021年第2期76-81,共6页
Sugar Crops of China
基金
国家现代农业产业技术体系(糖料)建设专项资金(CARS-170601)
北京哲学社会科学首都流通业基地(JD-YB-2020-001)
国际农业研究体系“食糖国际贸易跟踪研究”资助。
关键词
高果糖甜味剂
果葡糖浆
食糖
淀粉糖
high fructose sweetener
high fructose corn syrup
sugar
starch sugar
