摘要
过度投资与产能过剩是长期困扰中国经济发展的严峻问题,然而现有研究往往笼统地将二者视为一体。实际中,过度投资与产能过剩分别指向企业投资生产过程中的不同决策阶段,前者与需先行做出的长期投资决策有关,而后者则是后发的即期生产决策的结果。通过引入一个包含投资和生产两阶段的动态实物期权模型,尝试性地刻画从过度投资到产能过剩的形成机制,以及经济与政策这两种异质不确定性对这一形成机制的影响,进一步基于2003-2018年中国企业的微观数据进行了实证检验。理论与实证结果表明:(1)尽管产能过剩总是源自前期投资的过度扩张,但并不是所有的过度投资最终都会导致产能过剩;(2)不确定性是导致过度投资与产能过剩的重要因素,但过度投资更多地源于政策不确定性,而产能过剩则主要源于经济不确定性;(3)不确定性对产能过剩的影响要强于对过度投资的影响。因此,对过度投资的治理应以政策不确定性为主,保持政策调节的稳定性和连续性;对产能过剩的治理则应以经济不确定性为主,维护市场运行体系的稳定性。
Overinvestment and excess capacity are two of the biggest concerns that bother Chinese economy over a long history.However,they are generally mixed as one issue by current studies.In fact,we believe that overinvestment and excess capacity refer to different decision-making stages in an enterprise's investment and production processes respectively.The former is related to the long-term decision that usually needs to be made at first,whereas the latter is related to the short-term decision that is usually made afterwards.By incorporating a dynamic real option model covering both investment and production processes,this paper tries to illustrate the transmission mechanism from overinvestment to excess capacity,with the impacts of two heterogeneous uncertainty-economic and policy uncertainty.Besides,this paper empirical tests this mechanism by employing a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2003 to 2018.Results show that,(1)although excess capacity always roots in overinvestment,overinvestment may not cause excess capacity inevitably;(2)uncertainty has significant effects on overinvestment and excess capacity,but the former is more sensitive to policy uncertainty and the latter is more sensitive to economic uncertainty;(3)uncertainty has a greater impact on excess capacity than on overinvestment.Therefore,keeping the stability and continuity of policies is more useful to solve overinvestment,while maintaining the steady functioning of market system is the key to improve excess capacity.
作者
陈少凌
梁伟娟
刘天珏
CHEN Shao-ling;LIANG Wei-juan;LIU Tian-jue
出处
《产经评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第1期44-67,共24页
Industrial Economic Review
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“多重纳什均衡视角下新兴产业过度进入的形成机制及其对策研究”(项目批准号:15YJA630004,项目负责人:陈友芳)
国家社会科学基金项目“基于政治关联视角的中国企业跨国并购的战略选择”(项目批准号:15BJL087,项目负责人:李杰)
广东省自然科学基金项目“不确定条件下企业过度投资与产能效率的微观机理——以广东为例”(项目批准号:2016A030313094,项目负责人:陈少凌)。
