摘要
水文模型在山洪预警中得到了广泛应用,但由于传统的模型评定指标着重于从数理统计上判断模拟预报的精度,认为真值两侧的误差影响相同,易造成山洪虚警、漏警同概率出现。山洪灾害防治以人民生命安全为首要问题,山洪漏警带来的人员伤亡比虚警导致的经济损失更值得关注。因此,“优先减少漏警”应为山洪模拟的重要原则。在综合考虑立即转移预警时刻、准备转移预警时刻和成灾水位出现时刻对预警的影响后,提出了“山洪预警时效差”评定指标,对山洪预警中的水文模型进行评判。以官山河流域1975年以来的较大山洪为例,分别以“山洪预警时效差”以及洪峰流量相对误差、峰现时间绝对误差和纳什效率系数3个传统方法为评判指标,分别采用TOPMODEL模型、TVGM模型和新安江模型对各场次洪水进行模拟和山洪预警,然后对预警结果进行评定。结果表明,“山洪预警时效差”和传统指标的评定结果存在明显差异:通过传统的评定指标,认为TVGM模型最优;而山洪预警时效差指标却认为TOPMODEL模型最优。这是因为TVGM模型虽然准确度更高,但会造成更多的漏警,符合传统数理评定标准但不符合山洪预警要求。因此,依据“山洪预警时效差”对水文模型进行评定,可有效提高山洪预警的有效性和可靠性,比传统评定指标更符合山洪预警要求。
Hydrological model has been widely used in flash flood warning.The traditional performance criteria of hydrological model focus on the accuracy of prediction,and the errors on both sides of the true value are supposed to be the same when these criteria are used,which often cause false warning and miss warning with the same probability.In the practical prevention and control of flash flooding,the life safety is of primary consideration.Therefore,the casualties caused by miss warning are much more serious than the economic losses caused by false warning.Based on the principle of reducing miss warning,the temporal difference of flood warning,a new performance criterion coupling the time for immediate evacuation,the time for preparing evacuation and the time of disaster occurrence,was proposed.Taking the floods in Guanshanhe river since 1975 as an example,TOPMODEL model,TVGM model and Xin’anjiang model were used to simulate floods based on the temporal difference of flood warning and the traditional criteria,and then the flood warning results were compared with the measured data.It shows that the results of the temporal difference of flood warning and the traditional indices are very different.By using the traditional criteria,TVGM model would be chosen,while TOPMODEL is actually the best model by the criterion of temporal difference of flood warning.As TVGM model causes more miss warnings but has the highest accuracy according to the traditional criteria,which doesn’t satisfy the requirements of flash flood warning.Therefore,the effectiveness and reliability of flash flood warning can be improved by using the criterion of the temporal difference of flood warning,which would be more suitable for flash flood warning.
作者
张艳军
邹薏轩
王协康
张平仓
许文盛
ZHANG Yanjun;ZOU Yixuan;WANG Xiekang;ZHANG Pingcang;XU Wensheng(State Key Lab.of Water Resources and Hydropower Eng.Sci.,Wuhan Univ.,Wuhan 430072,China;State Key Lab.of Hydraulics and Mountain River Eng.,Sichuan Univ.,Chengdu 610065,China;Yangtze River Scientific Research Inst.of Yangtze Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China)
出处
《工程科学与技术》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期10-18,共9页
Advanced Engineering Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502500)
国家自然科学基金项目(41790431,51639007)。
关键词
山洪灾害
水文模型
山洪预警时效差
山洪预警
官山河流域
flash flood disaster
hydrological model
the temporal difference of flood warning
flash flood warning
Guanshanhe basin
