摘要
通过排列组合式的理论分析,研究贸易摩擦、外汇储备及其交互作用下对人民币国际化的影响:贸易摩擦程度加深会抑制人民币国际化;外汇储备规模提高会推进人民币国际化进程;贸易摩擦、外汇储备交互作用后,对人民币国际化产生推进或抑制的不同作用。通过实证分析,解决了内生性问题,并计算出贸易摩擦案件数、外汇储备规模综合作用对人民币国际化的影响拐点,绘制出4个变动象限,认为现阶段无需为加快人民币国际化进程而刻意迁就他国减少发起贸易摩擦,应当鼓励企业走出国门,并在提高外汇储备利用率上做出相应努力。
Through analysis based on permutation and combination theory,the impact of trade friction,of foreign exchange reserve and of their interaction on the internationalization of the renminbi(RMB)is determined:exacerbation of trade friction will inhibit the internationalization of the RMB;increase of the scale of foreign exchange reserve will promote the process;the interaction of the two will exert different influence either promoting or inhibiting.Through empirical analysis,we solve the problem of endogeneity,and calculate the number of trade frictions and the scale of foreign exchange reserve when the influence from their interaction reaches inflection point,and draw the four variable quadrants.We believe that at present stage,it is not necessary to give in to other countries to reduce trade frictions for speeding up the internationalization of the RMB.However,we should encourage companies to go out and make effort to improve the utilization of foreign exchange reserve.
作者
戎爱民
刘晓楠
季云青
任莹莹
Rong Aimin;Liu Xiaonan;Ji Yunqing;Ren Yingying(Jiaxing Central Sub-Branch of People s Bank of China,Jiaxing,Zhejiang 314050)
出处
《嘉兴学院学报》
2021年第2期114-123,135,共11页
Journal of Jiaxing University
关键词
贸易摩擦
外汇储备
人民币国际化
trade friction
foreign exchange reserve
internationalization of the renminbi
