摘要
提振消费是推动经济复苏、应对逆全球化和促进可持续增长的重要途径之一。本文使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,从总体效应、分类效应、消费结构和消费不均等视角,首次探讨住房租金变化对中国家庭消费的影响。实证结果表明,租金变化会对居民消费产生多重效应,不仅局限于租房市场的供需双方。具体来说,第一,租金下降在短期内能够显著促进家庭消费,租金消费弹性的绝对值约为0.12—0.41;进一步测算显示,短期内租金下降10%对国内生产总值的提振效应约为0.2%—0.4%。第二,从影响机制来看,“住房投资效应”占据主导地位,“租金收入效应”和“消费替代效应”分别是影响房东和租客的家庭消费行为的主要机制。第三,租金下降对食品、教育、水电费、通讯品和燃料支出的提升作用更加显著,对家庭耐用品和住房消费没有显著影响。第四,随着家庭消费水平提高,租金对消费的边际影响效应显著下降。最后,从宏观层面来看,租金变化对家庭消费的影响具有“马太效应”,租金下降有助于减小居民之间的消费不均等。
Weakened domestic demand has been one of the Chinese economy's major structural problems,and ongoing Sino-U.S.trade frictions and the coronavirus outbreak make the issue of paramount importance.Since 2018,the Chinese government has made it a top priority to support domestic demand and therefore stabilize economic growth.It has done so through tax cuts and direct spending.Boosting domestic consumption seems necessary for China to ease the epidemic's impact in the short term,respond to anti-globalization in the medium term,and promote sustainable economic growth in the long term.This paper investigates the real effect of housing rents on household consumption.Households can theoretically determine their consumption level and housing rents according to user costs,where housing rent is equivalent to user costs.Considering the marked divergence in housing rents and user costs documented in the literature,we propose that housing rents affect household consumption via the investment effect,the income effect,and the substitution effect in the theoretical framework.We use a unique dataset from the China Family Panel Study(CFPS)to examine the heterogeneous effects of housing rents on household consumption from the years 2012 to 2016.We use average housing rents from the survey to measure a specific region's housing rent level.Our specification not only allows for the crucial features of the housing market and regional disparity,but also for the interaction of households'housing tenure choices with their consumption patterns.To mitigate the concern of potential endogeneity between household consumption and housing rents,we adopt the proportion of housing demolition in the corresponding region as the instrument in the robustness check.Our paper documents several interesting patterns regarding housing rents and household consumption.First,our findings show positive household consumption responses to declining housing rents.This indicates that declining rent boosts household consumption in the short term.By controlling househo
作者
孙伟增
邓筱莹
万广华
SUN Weizeng;DENG Xiaoying;WAN Guanghua(School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics;School of Public Economics and Administration,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics;Institute of World Economy,Fudan University)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第12期132-147,共16页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学青年基金项目(71903210,71703095)
国家自然科学基金重点项目(71833003)的资助。
关键词
租金
家庭消费
消费结构
马太效应
Housing Rents
Household Consumption
Consumption Pattern
Matthew Effect
