摘要
目的:分析我国民营医院发展现状,通过构建GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,预测分析我国民营医院的未来发展趋势,以期为政府及相关部门提供决策参考。方法:根据2011-2012年《中国卫生统计年鉴》、2013-2017年《中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴》、2018-2020年《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》相关数据,选取医院数、床位数、医生数、护士数、年诊疗人数作为指标,构建GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,对我国2020-2025年民营医院的发展趋势进行预测分析。结果:根据各项指标所建立的灰色预测模型精度均大于95%,模型精度较高、拟合度较好,可用于中长期的外推预测;2020-2025年我国民营医院的数量、床位数、医生数、护士数、年诊疗人次不断增加,其中民营医院数量增长最快,其他指标增长缓慢。结论:我国民营医院数量将继续保持增长态势、服务能级与扩张规模不匹配;医护人力资源是制约我国民营医院发展的瓶颈之一;民营医院规模、服务质量良莠不齐,缺少有效的监督管理机制。政府应明确民营医院发展定位,进一步制定有利于民营医院发展的支持政策,控制其规模,使其合理扩张,同时合理分配资源,完善监督管理机制,从而推动民营医院的良性发展,使民营医院更好地发挥其服务效能。
Objective:To analyze the development status of private hospitals in China,and to predict and analyze the future development trend of private hospitals in China by constructing the GM(1,1)model,so as to provide decision-making reference for the government and related departments.Methods:According to relevant data from China's Health Statistics Yearbook(2011-2012),China's Health and Family Planning Statistics Yearbook(2013-2017)and China's Health Statistics Yearbook(2018-2020),the number of hospitals,the number of beds,doctors,nurses and the annual number of visits were selected as indicators,and the GM(1,1)prediction model was constructed to predict and analyze the development trend of private hospitals in China from 2020 to 2025.Results:The accuracy of the grey prediction models based on various indexes was more than 95%,and the models had high accuracy and good fitting degree,which could be used for medium and long-term prediction.From 2020 to 2025,the number of private hospitals,the number of beds,the number of doctors,nurses and the annual number of visits are on the rise in China,among which the growth of the number of private hospitals is the fastest,while the growth of other indicators is slow.Conclusion:The number of private hospitals in China will keep growing and their service level and expansion scale are not matched.Medical human resources are one of the bottlenecks restricting the development of private hospitals in China.The scale and service quality of private hospitals are varying and there doesn’t exist effective supervision and management mechanism.The government should define the development orientation of private hospitals,further develop support policies for them,ensure their reasonable scale expansion,allocate resources rationally and perfect the supervision and management mechanism,so as to promote the benign development of private hospital and improve their service performance.
作者
丁海峰
高凯
罗娟
姜茂敏
DING Haifeng(School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai,201600,China)
出处
《医学与社会》
北大核心
2021年第3期1-6,共6页
Medicine and Society
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目,编号为16BJY001
上海市哲学社科项目,编号为2016EJB002
上海工程技术大学研究生科研创新项目,编号为19KY0326。
关键词
民营医院
发展趋势
灰色预测模型
Private Hospital
Development Trend
Grey Prediction Model
