摘要
以福建平和县中心城区城市空间为研究对象,采用耦合神经网络(ANN)和元胞自动机模型(CA),依据2003年、2009年、2017年平和县城市土地利用数据,选取地形坡度、交通设施、规划改策作为城市扩张驱动主因子,对2030年城市空间拓展进行模拟预测。结果表明:三因子对城市土地利用变化量及形态发展有着积极影响,以政府部门为主导的规划改策因子影响力显著;2033年平和县空间扩张形态预测结果与城市未来发展趋势相符合,计算两者的KAPPA系数,一致度达72.82%;ANN-CA耦合模型对于中心城区未开发利用的真空地带具有预算效用,并能够实现城市骨干道路蔓延预测。
This paper takes central city space of Pinghe county of Fujian province as the research object,and uses ANN-CA as a research model to predict its urban expansion.Firstly,it chooses the urban land use data of Pinghe county in 2003,2009 and 2017 that can be used as model fundamental data.Then,by selecting the terrain slope,transport facilities,the government policy as main factors for urban expansion drive,ANN-CA prediction model can be established.Finally,the paper could simulate and predict the urban land expansion status of the study area in 2030.The results show that,the above three factors have a positive influence on the urban space expansion,and especially been affected by the government policy factor.The predicted result of spatial expansion of Pinhe central area in 2033 is in line with the urban master planning,during which has KAPPA coefficient 72.82%.In addition,ANN-CA model also has prediction effectiveness in urban unexploited vacuum zone,and can realize the urban backbone road sprawl forecasting.
作者
丁美辰
蔡卓
DING Meichen;CAI Zhou(School of Architecture,Xiamen University Tan Kah Kee College,Zhangzhou 363105,China;Zhangzhou City Planning and Design Co.,Ltd,Zhangzhou 363005,China)
出处
《沈阳建筑大学学报（社会科学版）》
2021年第1期21-27,共7页
Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University:Social Science
基金
福建省住房和城乡建设厅科技计划项目(2017-K-99)
厦门大学嘉庚学院预研项目(YY2019L04)
关键词
中小城市
城镇化
城市空间拓展
ANN-CA
平和县
small and medium-sized cities
urbanization
urban space expansion
ANN-CA
Pinghe county
