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基于PPC-D-S证据理论的地铁施工风险评价 被引量:7

Metro Construction Risk Assessment Based on PPC-D-S Evidence Theory
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摘要 深入研究地铁施工风险的因素来源及演变过程,厘清不同风险对施工的不确定影响,对于确保施工作业安全非常重要。文章以相关文献调查及检索分析为背景,结合实际地铁施工情况,从"人、机、材、制、环"五方面选取指标因素并建立风险评价指标体系,引入投影寻踪法(PPC)进行权重客观量化,通过构建D-S证据理论风险评价模型对地铁施工安全进行全面评估。并将此模型应用于青岛地铁13号线工程,分析判断风险影响并划分安全等级,提出有效改进规避措施,可为类似地铁工程建设提供借鉴。 As for the construction safety,it is very important to make a thorough study of the source and evolution process of metro construction risks and to clarify the uncertain influence of different risks on construction.Based on the background of the literature investigation,retrieval and analysis,combined with the actual metro construction sit⁃uation,the index factors are selected from the five aspects of“human,machine,material,system and environment”,and the risk assessment index system is established.The projection pursuit method(PPC)is introduced to calculate and quantify the weights objectively,and a comprehensive assessment of metro construction safety is carried out by constructing a D-S evidence theory based risk assessment model.The proposed model is applied to Qingdao metro line 13 project,by which the impacts of risks are analyzed,the safety levels are classified,and effective improve⁃ment and avoidance measures are put forward,providing reference for the construction of similar metro projects.
作者 周盛世 张宁 张晓娟 ZHOU Shengshi;ZHANG Ning;ZHANG Xiaojuan(School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520)
出处 《现代隧道技术》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2021年第1期75-83,共9页 Modern Tunnelling Technology
关键词 地铁施工 投影寻踪法(PPC) D-S证据理论 风险评价 Metro construction Projection pursuit method(PPC) D-S evidence theory Risk assessment
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