摘要
水资源、能源、粮食是我国的重要资源,三者之间相互依存,在城市发展过程中起着重要作用,是城市可持续发展的重要基础资源。以上海市为例,构建上海市W-E-F (Water-Energy-Food简写为W-E-F)系统的综合评价指标体系,采用熵值法和变异系数法对指标赋权,然后建立耦合协调度模型,分析上海市W-E-F系统和各子系统间协调发展水平,并应用灰色GM (1, 1)模型预测2018—2025年上海市W-E-F系统的耦合协调度发展趋势。结果显示:上海市W-E-F系统发展分为两个阶段,第一阶段为2003—2013年,W-E-F系统呈下降趋势;第二阶段为2013—2017年,W-E-F系统呈稳定上升趋势,并在未来2018—2025年耦合协调度呈稳定上升趋势,至2025年过渡到良好协调发展水平,但未上升到优质协调发展水平。上海市应继续提高资源利用效率,拓展城市协调发展空间。
Water,energy and food are important resources in China.These resources are interdependent and play an important role in the process of urban development.In addition,they are important basic resources for sustainable urban development.Taking Shanghai as an example,a comprehensive evaluation index system of the Shanghai water-energyfood(W-E-F)system is constructed.The entropy and coefficient of variation methods are used to weight the index.Then,a coupling coordination model is established to analyse the coordinated development level of the Shanghai W-EF system and its subsystems.Next,the grey GM(1,1)model is applied to predict the coupling coordination development trend of the Shanghai W-E-F system during the period from 2018 to 2025.The results show that the development of the W-E-F system in Shanghai is divided into two stages.The first stage occurs from 2003 to 2013,during which the W-E-F system shows a downward trend;the second stage occurs from 2013 to 2017,during which the W-E-F system shows a stable upward trend.The coupling coordination degree shows a stable upward trend during the future period of 2018-2025 and a transition to a good coordinated development level by 2025.However,the results do not show a transition to a high-quality coordinated development level.Therefore,Shanghai should continue to develop its resource utilization efficiency and improve the coordinated development space of the city.
作者
王丽川
侯保灯
周毓彦
陈晓清
王欣
黄亚
WANG Lichuan;HOU Baodeng;ZHOU Yuyan;CHEN Xiaoqing;WANG Xin;HUANG Ya(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《水利水运工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第1期9-17,共9页
Hydro-Science and Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFE0196000)
广西研究生教育创新计划资助项目(YCBZ2018023)。
关键词
W-E-F系统
耦合协调
上海市
灰色预测
water-energy-food system
coupling coordination
Shanghai city
grey prediction
