摘要
在软土地基沉降预测中,针对单项预测方法选择与实际工程情况难适应问题,提出了修正优化综合预测模型,从不同角度独立挖掘软土地基沉降监测数据,分析软土地基沉降变化规律,实现了软土地基沉降的综合预测。首先综合考虑双曲线法与GM(1,1)模型建模机理,基于算数加权平均组合思想建立初步综合预测模型;然后构建实时修正权值系数,计算实时修正量对初步综合预测模型进行修正,建立修正优化综合预测模型;最后可利用修正优化综合预测模型进行软土地基沉降预测。妈祖城工程实例结果表明:修正优化综合预测模型在软土地基沉降预测中,较双曲线法与GM(1,1)有较好的预测精度与普遍适用性,可以有效降低单项方法组合后的预测误差。
In the soft soil foundation settlement prediction,aiming at the problem that single prediction method selection and actual engineering situation are difficult to adapt,a modified optimized comprehensive prediction model is put forward to excavate soft soil foundation settlement monitoring data from different angles,analyzing the change rules of soft soil foundation settlement,thus realizing the comprehensive prediction of soft soil foundation settlement.Firstly,hyperbolic method and GM(1,1)model modeling mechanism are comprehensively considered,based on arithmetic weighted average combinatorial data,a preliminary combinatorial forecast model is set up,thus a real-time correction weight coefficient is built to calculate the real-time correction and to modify the preliminary combination forecast model,and the modified optimization combination forecast model is established.Finally,by using correction optimization combination forecast model,the soft soil foundation settlement is predicted.The result of Mazu City project example verification shows that the modified optimized comprehensive prediction model has a better prediction accuracy and universal applicability than hyperbolic method and GM(1,1)in the prediction of settlement of soft soil foundation j which can effectively reduce the prediction error after combining single methods.
作者
王培宇
曹日红
闫放
唐礼忠
Wang Peiyu;Cao Rihong;Yan Fang;Tang Lizhong(School of Resources and Safety Engineering,Central South University Changsha 410083,China)
出处
《建筑科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第1期30-35,共6页
Building Science
基金
国家自然科学基金(1772358)
深部岩土力学与地下工程国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLGDUEK1908)
地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLGP2019K003)
公路地质灾变预警空间信息技术工程实验室开放基金项目(kf5170603)
水利部岩土力学与工程重点实验室开放基金项目(CKWV2019738/KY)
大学生创新创业训练计划支持项目(2020105330041)。
关键词
软土地基沉降
双曲线法
修正优化综合预测模型
实时修正权值系数
settlement of soft soil foundation
hyperbolic method
modified optimized comprehensive prediction model
real time correction weight coefficient
