摘要
城市水资源的循环利用对于缓解供水压力具有重要意义。在进行城市水资源系统循环分析的基础上,采用系统动力学方法,对各种水资源循环利用情景进行了量化模拟分析。在水资源自然循环中,生产用水增长率为1%时,水资源供给量均大于需求量;而生产用水增长率为10%时,2019~2021年缺水量从9.74×102 t快速增加到1.33×104 t;社会循环中,污水回用率从90%提高至95%,回用水量将不断增大,2021年增加量约达1×108 t,而GDP从1%提高至5%,将直接增加污水排放量,2021年的增加量约为6×1010 t;社会经济循环中,污水回用率从90%提高至95%,将节约新鲜水的需求量,节约量从2016年的4.98×107 t增加到2021年的1.139×109 t。结果表明:GDP增速不变时,污水回用率增大,可降低新鲜水的需求量;污水回用率不变时,GDP增速越大,污水排放量越大,应采取管理措施提高水资源循环利用率。
The recycling of water resources is of great significance to alleviate the pressure of water supply in urban.Based on the analysis of urban water resources recycling system,the system dynamic method was used to quantitatively simulate different recycle scenarios of urban water resources in Tianjin.In the natural water resources cycle,when the growth rate of production water is 1%,the supply of water resources would exceed the demand;when the growth rate is 10%,the water shortage from 2019 to 2021 will increase rapidly from 974 to 13294 tons.In the social water cycle,if the sewage reuse rate increase from 90% to 95%,which will lead to an increase in reused water quantity,the increased value will reach to 0.1 billion tons in 2021;and if GDP growth ratio increase from 1% to 5%,which will lead to a large amount of sewage discharge,the increased value is about 60 billion tons in 2021.In the social economic cycle,if the sewage reuse rate increase from 90% to 95%,which will save the demand for fresh water decrease rapidly,and the saved amount will increase from 0.0498 billion tons of 2016 to 1.139 billion tons of 2021.The results show that when the GDP growth rate is constant,increasing sewage reuse rate can reduce the demand of fresh water;if the sewage reuse rate is constant,increase of GDP would increase the discharge of sewage,so management measures must be taken to improve the recycling utilization rate of water resources.
作者
曾文炉
荆杨洋
ZENG Wenlu;JING Yangyang(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nankai University,Tianjin 300350,China;Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Pollution Processes and Environmental Criteria,Tianjin 300350,China;Tianjin Key Laboratory of Urban Ecology Environmental Remediation and Pollution Control,Tianjin 300350,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2021年第1期83-89,共7页
Yangtze River
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(13BJY065)。
关键词
水资源循环利用
城市水资源
系统动力学
模拟分析
多情景仿真研究
recycling of water resources
urban water resources
system dynamics
simulation analysis
multi-scenario system simulation