摘要
结合山东省太阳能政策及发展现状,构建山东省社会核算矩阵表(SAM),并组建山东省太阳能电价补贴可计算一般均衡模型(CGE模型).通过代数建模系统(GAMS)模拟仿真太阳能电价补贴较基准年份增长5%、10%、15%、20%、25%、30%的不同情景,分析电价补贴的能源效应、经济效应、社会和环境效应.研究表明:①随着补贴的逐步增加,太阳能电量消费大幅增长,化石能源消费量降低而能源价格上升,其中煤炭消费的变动更为显著;②补贴的逐步增加使得山东省GDP水平发生变化,GDP水平在补贴增长25%时产生拐点从而呈现倒"U"型;③补贴的不断提升使得居民消费水平下降和碳排放水平的下降,其对社会福利造成的负效应明显小于产生的社会环境正效益.
Based on the solar energy policy and development status of Shandong Province,the social accounting matrix table(SAM)of Shandong Province is constructed,and the computable general equilibrium model(CGE model)of solar electricity price subsidy specially belongs to Shandong Province is established. The general algebraic modeling system(GAMS)is used to simulate different scenarios in which the solar price subsidy increases by 5%,10%,15%,20%,25% and 30% compared with the base year,so as to analyze the energy effect,economic effect,social and environmental effect of the electricity price subsidy. Research shows as follows. ①As subsidies have increased,solar power consumption has increased,while fossil energy consumption has fallen and risen with prices,especially for coal. ②The increase of subsidies affected the level of GDP in Shandong Province,which presents an"inverted U"with the inflection point appeared in the subsidy growth of 25%. ③The price subsidy makes the level of consumer consumption and carbon emissions decline,it is worth noting that the positive benefits of the social environment is obviously greater than the loss of social welfare.
作者
王扬晓
范秋芳
马颖
张杰
WANG Yangxiao;FAN Qiufang;MA Ying;ZHANG Jie(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao 266580,Shandong China)
出处
《河南科学》
2021年第1期148-156,共9页
Henan Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(14BJL045)
教育部人文社会科学研究与规划基金项目(18YJA810001)
山东省社会科学规划项目和山东社会科学院创新工程项目(17CCXJ07)
青岛市社会科学规划项目(QDSKL1801036)。
关键词
太阳能
CGE模型
电价补贴
能源效应
经济效应
社会和环境效应
solar energy
CGE model
electricity price subsidies
energy effect
economic effect
social and environmental effect