摘要
该文提出了一个基于三维信息扩散和随机过程方法的台风灾害风险估计模型.采用台风登陆时最大风力等级和降雨极值作为三维信息扩散的输入,以灾害损失作为输出,利用三维正态信息扩散进行模糊近似推理.结合台风开始登陆的时间,构建台风灾害损失随机过程的样本函数,并计算台风在各时段、不同月份的灾害损失风险和年度风险.以1993—2017年华南台风为研究对象,进行了台风灾害损失在各时段、不同月份及年度风险的估计.结果表明三维信息扩散输入使用两个致灾因子比二维信息扩散使用单一致灾因子,结果更符合实际.
In this paper,a typhoon disaster risk estimation model based on three-dimensional information diffusion and stochastic process method is proposed.The maximum wind force and the extreme value of rainfall during typhoon landfall are used as the input of three-dimensional information diffusion and the disaster loss as the output.The fuzzy approximate reasoning is carried out by using the diffusion of three-dimensional normal information.Combined with the time when the typhoon begins to make landfall,the sample function of the random process of typhoon disaster loss is constructed,and the disaster loss risk and annual risk of typhoon in different periods and different months are calculated.Taking the typhoon in South China from 1993 to 2017 as the research object,the risk of typhoon disaster loss in different periods,different months and years is estimated.The results show that the three-dimensional information diffusion input uses two disaster factors better than the two-dimensional information diffusion uses a single disaster factor,and the result is more consistent with the reality.
作者
徐庆娟
潘金兰
刘合香
XU Qing-juan;PAN Jin-lan;LIU He-xiang(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Nanning Normal University,Nanning 530100,China;Key Laboratory of Ocean Disasters Research of Guangxi Beibu Gulf,Qinzhou 535000,China)
出处
《南宁师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2020年第4期54-69,共16页
Journal of Nanning Normal University：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金(41665006)
广西自然科学基金(2020GXNSFAA159103)
南宁师范大学博士科研启动项目(20180406001)。
关键词
三维信息扩散
随机过程
台风灾害
风险
three-dimensional information diffusion
stochastic process
typhoon disaster
risk
