摘要
2020年,受国内外政治经济环境及各类公共安全事件影响,我国提出双循环战略以提振经济。本文基于双循环背景下由重大公共安全事件所引发的贸易冲击对产业结构升级的影响进行实证研究,通过采用2000年~2019年三次产业构成数据,研究国际贸易化程度及外商直接投资指数,并结合当前双循环政策背景,利用计量软件基于VAR模型进行宏观分析研究,探析贸易冲击对于产业升级的影响。实证结果表明,贸易冲击对服务业影响较大,对第一、二产业影响相对较小,总体而言贸易冲击会减缓产业优化升级进程。
In 2020,influenced by the political and economic environment at home and abroad and various public security incidents,China put forward a double-cycle strategy to boost the economy.Based on the double-cycle background,this paper makes an empirical study on the impact of trade shocks caused by major public security incidents on industrial structure upgrading.By using the data of three industrial compositions from 2000 to 2019,it studies the degree of international trade and foreign direct investment index.Combined with the current double-cycle policy background,it makes a macro analysis based on VAR model by using measurement software to explore the impact of trade shocks on industrial upgrading.The empirical results show that trade shocks have a great impact on the service industry,but have a relatively small impact on the primary and secondary industries.On the whole,trade shocks will slow down the process of industrial optimization and upgrading.
作者
相佳秀
陈阿兴
XIANG Jia-xiu;CHEN A-xing(School of International Economic and Trade,Anhui University of Finance&Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)
出处
《价值工程》
2020年第35期45-49,共5页
Value Engineering
基金
安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金(ACYC2019031)资助。
关键词
双循环
贸易冲击
产业升级
实证分析
bicirculating
trade shock
industrial upgrading
empirical analysis
