摘要
本文选取吉林省农民家庭平均每人可支配收入作为研究对象,运用2005~2018年的宏观统计数据,首先构建灰色预测模型,在此基础上利用马尔科夫链对灰色预测值进行修正,将模拟值与真实值进行对比,模拟程度较高。因此灰色马尔科夫预测模型能够对吉林省农民家庭平均每人可支配收入进行合理的预测,最终提出促进农民收入的建议。
In this paper, the average disposable income of farmers’ families in Jilin Province was selected as the research object. Based on the macro statistical data from 2005 to 2018, the gray prediction model was first constructed. On this basis, the predicted gray value was modified by using Markov chain, and the simulated value was compared with the real value, with a higher simulation degree. Therefore, the gray Markov prediction model can reasonably forecast the average disposable income of farmers in Jilin Province and finally put forward suggestions to promote farmers’ income.
作者
李晶晶
刘文明
费红梅
LI Jingjing;LIU Wenming;FEI Hongmei(Jilin Agricultural University,Changchun 130118;Jilin Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Changchun 130033,China)
出处
《东北农业科学》
北大核心
2020年第6期106-109,139,共5页
Journal of Northeast Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金(71640039)
吉林省科技发展计划项目(20150418017FG)
吉林省农业科学院创新工程项目(c7208000305、Y81990602)
吉林省社会科学基金(2017BS15)。
