摘要
为探究畜肉价格上涨与通货膨胀之间关系,给相关部门短期内平抑物价水平、保障畜肉有效供给、引导消费者调整消费结构等提供参考,建立向量误差修正模型(VEC)从短期角度研究各畜肉价格与通货膨胀之间短期波动关系。研究表明,短期内滞后一期猪牛羊肉价格对CPI影响显著,但从长期关系看,各滞后一期畜肉价格对CPI正向影响随时间推移逐渐减小;滞后一期CPI对当期猪牛羊肉价格均无显著影响;当期猪肉价格受滞后一期牛羊肉价格影响不显著,相反牛羊肉价格受滞后一期猪肉价格影响均显著;牛羊肉价格联系紧密。基于此,生产方面,通过制定稳定的、长期性畜牧业扶持政策,提高畜牧业发展水平,短期内采取投放储备肉等应急措施,稳定畜肉价格;保障居民消费方面,给予低收入群体或少数居民适当消费补贴,引导居民调整肉类消费结构;信息预警方面,加强猪肉价格监测和预警工作,掌握信息发布主动权等。
In order to explore the relationship between the rise of livestock meat price and inflation,and provide references for relevant departments to stabilize the price level,ensure the effective supply of meat and guide consumers to adjust the consumption structure,a vector error correction model(VEC)is established to study the short-term fluctuation relationship between livestock meat price and inflation from a short-term perspective.The results showed that the price of pork,beef and mutton had a significant impact on CPI in the short term,but from the long-term relationship,the positive impact of each lag phase on CPI gradually decreased;the lag CPI had no significant impact on the current price of pork,beef and mutton;the current pork price was not significantly affected by the price of beef and mutton in the lag phase;on the contrary,the price of beef and mutton was significantly affected by the price of pork in the lag stage;therefore,the price of beef and mutton was closely related.Based on this,in terms of production,stable and long-term animal husbandry support policies should be formulated to improve the development level of animal husbandry in the long run;and emergency measures,such as putting in reserve meat in the short term should be taken to stabilize the price of livestock and meat;in terms of ensuring residents'consumption,appropriate consumption subsidies should be given to low-income groups and minority residents to guide them to adjust the meat consumption structure;in terms of information warning,the monitoring and early warning of pork price should be strengthen to master the initiative of information publishing.
作者
康海琪
肖海峰
KANG Haiqi;XIAO Haifeng(School of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《农业经济与管理》
CSSCI
2020年第6期76-85,共10页
Agricultural Economics and Management
基金
国家绒毛用羊产业技术体系产业经济研究(CARS-39-22)。
