摘要
综合灾害防御能力评估已成为应急管理业务和研究的重要内容之一。在前期研究基础上,首先从近年来灾害系统的复杂性特征和应急管理的需求角度出发,对综合灾害防御能力进行了再理解,然后对现有灾害防御能力的多属性综合评估方法进行了梳理总结。以气象灾害为例,通过68项指标构建了我国综合气象灾害防御能力的6个单项指标体系,即制度适应能力、风险识别能力、备灾与应急响应能力、技术与工程防御能力、经济支撑与减灾保障能力和部门联动与社会保障能力。采用数据包络分析方法,从省级尺度定量评估了我国31个省级行政单元的单项气象灾害防御能力和综合气象灾害防御能力,并进行了能力排名。结果发现我国多数省份的单项气象灾害防御能力和综合气象灾害防御能力偏低,且具有不同的区域差异特征。其中制度适应能力、风险识别能力、备灾与应急响应能力、技术与工程防御能力、经济支撑与减灾保障能力、部门联动与社会保障能力和综合气象灾害防御能力处于中等及以下低等级的省份占比分别达到了70.9%、38.7%、32.3%、77.4%、67.7%、51.6%和77.4%。我国综合灾害防御能力与经济社会发展水平不匹配,仍有进一步较大的提升空间。
Integrated disaster defense capability assessment has become one of the important contents of emergency management work and research.On the basis of previous research,this research first re-understands the integrated disaster defense capability from the perspective of the complexity characteristics of disaster system and the requirements of emergency management in recent years,and then summarizes the existing multi-attribute comprehensive evaluation methods of disaster defense capability.Taking meteorological disaster as an example,6 single index systems of integrated meteorological disaster defense capability are constructed through 68 indexes,namely system adaptability,risk identification capability,disaster preparedness and emergency response capability,technology and engineering defense capability,economic support and disaster reduction support capability,department linkage and social security capability.Themethodofdata envelopment analysis is used to evaluate the 6 singleandintegrated meteorological disaster defense capability of 31 provincial administrative units in China,and rank the ability.The results show that the 6 single andintegrated meteorological disaster defense capability of most provinces in China are in low level,and have different regional differences.Among them,the proportion of 31 provinces in the middle and lower levels in system adaptability,risk identification ability,disaster preparedness and emergency response ability,technical and engineering defense ability,economic support and disaster reduction support ability,department linkage and social security ability,and integrated meteorological disaster defense ability reach 70.9%,38.7%,32.3%,77.4%,67.7%,51.6%and 77.4%respectively.Theintegrated disaster defense capability does not match the level of economic development inChina,and there is still much room for further improvement.
作者
孔锋
KONG Feng(College of Humanities and Development Studies,China Agriculture University,Beijing 100083,China;Center for Crisis Management Research,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第1期69-75,99,共8页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
北京市社科基金研究基地项目(19JDGLA008)
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0806900,2018YFC1509003,2019YFC1510202)
国家自然科学基金项目(41801064,71790611,41701103,41775078)
中亚大气科学研究基金项目(CAAS201804)。
关键词
综合灾害防御能力评估
应急管理
经济支撑
减灾保障
技术与工程防御能力
人类世
气候变化
integrated disaster defense capability evaluation
emergency management
economic support
disaster reduction guarantee
technology and engineering defense capability
Anthropocene
climate change
