摘要
旅游业是一个波动性较大的产业,对旅游业发展波动状况进行预测,对于及时调整投入、制定相关政策、促进旅游产业健康发展具有重要意义。消费对于产业发展、经济增长意义重大,而消费产生的前提是具有需求。立足现有研究实际,在分析旅游需求影响因素的基础上,筛选出浙江省旅游业运行的先行指标、一致指标和滞后指标,通过收集2008—2017年的季度数据,采用合成指数方法并运用HP滤波方法分离出趋势因素和循环因素,研究浙江省旅游业景气状况。结果显示,先行指数和滞后指数具有较好的先行性和滞后性,大约先行或滞后两个季度;突发事件会对旅游业产生较大影响;浙江省旅游业总体发展呈小幅平稳波动态势,总体而言较为景气,但有时会不可避免地出现局部小波动,未来将持续现有发展态势。
Tourism is a highly volatile industry.Forecasting the fluctuations of tourism development is of great significance for timely adjustment of investment,formulation of relevant policies,and promotion of the healthy development of the tourism industry.Consumption is of great significance to industrial development and economic growth,and the premise of consumption is demand.There are few existing studies on the cyclical operational characteristics and wave dynamics of tourism based on the demand perspective.Based on the existing research,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of tourism demand,the leading indicators,consistent indicators and lagging indicators of tourism operation in Zhejiang Province were selected.By collecting the quarterly data from 2008 to 2017,the composite index method was used and applied.The HP filtering method separates the trend factors and the cyclic factors,and studies the tourism boom situation in Zhejiang Province.The results show that the leading index and the lag index have good effect,which are about second lag;the unexpected events will have a greater impact on tourism;the overall development of tourism in Zhejiang Province is a small steady wave dynamic.Generally speaking,it is more prosperous,but sometimes local small fluctuations will inevitably occur,and the existing development trend will continue in the future.
作者
龙祖坤
洪毓嘉
LONG Zu-kun;HONG Yu-jia(Business School of Xiangtan University,Xiangtan Hunan 411105)
出处
《湖南财政经济学院学报》
2021年第1期31-38,共8页
Journal of Hunan University of Finance and Economics
基金
湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目“湖南省旅游经济运行质量评价与提升研究”(项目编号:2015110900503)。
关键词
旅游需求
HP滤波
合成指数
景气
tourism demand
HP filtering
composite index
prosperity
