摘要
基于2009-2017年的省级平衡面板数据,本文通过将产业结构演变划分为工业化、产业结构升级和高新产业发展三个阶段,利用动态GMM方法研究了区域产业结构差异对地区不良贷款率的影响。结果表明:(1)工业化进程对地区不良贷款率具有显著的抑制作用,并且二者之间成“反J型”关系,即工业化对不良贷款的影响边际递减;(2)就业指标衡量的产业结构升级与地区不良贷款率之间成倒U型关系,且主要处在倒U型曲线的左半部分,因此二者在整体上成正相关关系;(3)高新产业的发展与地区不良贷款率同向变动,这应该是高新产业的高风险性及其发展初期的阶段性约束共同作用的结果。基于此,商业银行应根据本地区的产业结构来管理贷款投放,产业结构升级也需要以多层次的金融市场体系作为支撑。
This paper studies the effects of regional industrial structure on regional non-performing loan ratio(NPL)based on the provincial balanced panel data in China from 2009 to 2017.The results show that the process of industrialization has a significant inhibitory effect on the regional NPL and there is a reverse J-shaped relationship between them,which means that the impact of industrialization on NPL has a marginal diminishing effect.The relationship between the industrial structure upgrading measured by the employment indicator and the regional NPL is inverted U-shaped.The development of high-tech industries and regional NPL changes in the same direction,which might be due to the highly risky nature of high-tech industries.
作者
武鹏飞
戴国强
WU Pengfei;DAI Guoqiang(School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai,200433,China)
出处
《金融评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期97-111,126,共16页
Chinese Review of Financial Studies
基金
教育部人文社科基金项目(2009120014)
上海财经大学“双一流”引导项目(2016110708)的支持。
关键词
商业银行不良贷款
产业结构
GMM
Non-performing Loans
Commercial Bank
Industrial Structure
