摘要
以塔里木河干流区为研究区域,选取研究区内3个主要控制水文站1961-2010年逐年径流量资料和同期10个气象站逐日地面气象资料,运用最小二乘法、降水-径流双累积曲线和距平相关方法,分时段分析了塔里木河干流区年径流量变化特征及其主要影响因素。结果表明:(1)近50年来,塔里木河干流区年径流量呈减少趋势,减幅为3.03×108m3/10a(P> 0.05),且1970年前年径流量减幅为"上游区>下游区>中游区",1970年后减幅为"中游区>上游区>下游区",干流区和各流域区(上、中、下)年径流量分别累计减少了1.51×1010m3、1.235×1010m3、2.323×1010m3和9.65×109m3。(2)人类活动是塔里木河干流区年径流量减少的主要控制因子,且对年径流量变化的影响程度为"上游区>下游区>中游区",气候变化是次要的影响因子。(3)1970年前,塔里木河干流区和各流域区(上、中、下)年径流量的减少仅与人类活动有关,与气候变化关系不显著;1970年后,塔里木河干流、上游和下游区年径流量的减少仅与人类活动有关;中游区年径流量的减少不仅与人类活动量增加有关,也与相对湿度的降低、平均气温和最低气温的升高有关,与降水量、平均风速和最高气温关系不显著。
Based on the annual runoff data from three key runoff stations and meteorological date from ten meteorological stations during 1961 to 2010 in the main stream of Tarim River.The changing characteristics and main influence factors on annual runoff were analyzed by least square method,double mass curve of precipitation and runoff and anomaly correction method in the main stream Tarim River at different timescale.The result showed that:(1) The tendency on annual runoff was decreasing and decreased range was 3.03 hundred million m3/10 a(P>0.05) in the main stream of Tarim River in recent 50 years.And decreased range on annual runoff before 1970 were "upstream area>downstream area>middle stream area" and after 1970 were "middle stream area>upstream area>downstream area" in the main stream of Tarim River.The main stream area and different area(upstream,middle,downstream) on annual runoff accumulative reduce 151 hundred million m^3,123.5 hundred million m^3,232.3 hundred million m^3 and 96.5 hundred million m^3.(2) The decreased on annual runoff were main controlled by human activities,which influence degree on annual runoff were "upstream area>downstreamarea>middle stream area",and climate change was secondary influence factor.(3) The decreased on annual runoff before 1970 were determined by human activities in the main stream area and different area(upstream,middle,downstream) of Tarim River,and therelationship with climate change was not significant.And decreased on annual runoff after 1970 only determined by human activities in the main stream area,upstream area and downstream area of Tarim River.However,the decreased on annual runoff after 1970 in middle stream area of Tarim River was determined by increased intensity of human activities,increased by relative humidity,raised by average air temperature and minimum temperature mainly,and the relationship with precipitation,average wind speed and maximum temperature were not significant.
作者
焦紫岚
王家强
迟春明
牛建龙
Jiao Zilan;Wang Jiaqiang;Chi Chunming;Niu Jianlong(College of Plant Science,Tarim university,Alar Xinjiang 843300)
出处
《塔里木大学学报》
2020年第4期96-104,共9页
Journal of Tarim University
基金
国家自然科学基金委员会地区科学基金项目“荒漠河岸林胡杨叶片对地下水埋深的光谱响应研究”(31860172)。
关键词
气候变化
人类活动
年径流量
塔里木河干流区
climate change
human activities
annual runoff
the main stream of Tarim River
